The southwest monsoon advanced into additional areas of the westcentral and eastcentral Arabian Sea, including parts of Maharashtra, on Monday, as reported by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). However, officials stated that it remains premature to predict the official onset of seasonal rainfall in Pune.
Current Monsoon Position
According to the IMD, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) as of Monday passed through coordinates 18°N/60°E, 18°N/65°E, 18°N/70°E, Harnai in Ratnagiri district, and Solapur, among other regions. This advance indicates further progress of the monsoon over parts of Maharashtra, though officials noted that its movement across the state may be gradual over the coming days.
An IMD official stated, "There can be further advance over some more parts of Maharashtra in the next two-three days." When asked if Pune could experience monsoon onset within the next few days, the official replied, "We cannot say right now."
Criteria for Monsoon Declaration
The official explained that the declaration of monsoon advance beyond Kerala is based on a combination of sustained rainfall patterns and favorable wind conditions, including the presence of southwesterly winds. "Both rainfall continuity and wind patterns are monitored before declaring further progression of the monsoon," the official said.
Current weather activity over the region is influenced by larger-scale synoptic systems, including a shear zone in the middle tropospheric levels and an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the eastcentral Arabian Sea off the south Konkan coast. "Most of the rainfall we are getting over this region is mainly because of these systems," the official added.
Regional Rainfall Forecast
While western parts of Maharashtra have seen monsoon progress, eastern regions are likely to wait longer. The official noted that the monsoon has not strengthened sufficiently over eastern parts of the country, making it difficult to assess the timeline for its advance into eastern Maharashtra, including Vidarbha.
The IMD has forecast thunder showers accompanied by lightning and light rain over Pune city from June 10 to June 14. For the state, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is likely over Konkan and Goa from June 9 to June 10. Rainfall activity is expected to reduce to isolated to scattered showers over Konkan and Goa during June 11-14. Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada are expected to receive isolated to scattered rainfall during June 9-14.
Severe Weather Warnings
The IMD has also forecast isolated thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds reaching 40-50 kmph, gusting up to 60 kmph, over Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, and Marathwada during June 9-10. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Konkan and Goa and parts of Madhya Maharashtra on June 9.
