NEW DELHI: In cricketing analogy, Congress finally got off the mark with Kerala. The party secured its first victory since winning Telangana in December 2023, showing resilience after a commendable performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls was followed by a nosedive. It surrendered solo winnable turfs and posted poor tallies in alliances.
Kerala: A Sigh of Relief
Kerala is a sigh of relief for Congress, which appeared to have lost the skill of winning. Haryana and Maharashtra were winnable, but the party fell short. In coalition states, Congress performed poorly in the winning NC alliance of Jammu and Kashmir and in the losing MVA alliance of Maharashtra, recording its lowest ever tally in that massive state. Jharkhand, deftly managed by senior partner JMM, was the only redeeming feature.
Assam and Other Setbacks
Despite the big win in Kerala, the decimation in Assam cancelled out the Kerala effect. A decade out of power in its one-time stronghold, the confident attempt at revival by appointing MP Gaurav Gogoi at the helm came a cropper. The party seems to have no answer to the religious polarisation set in motion by the BJP. Congress’s continuing moribund state in West Bengal and the dismal show in Tamil Nadu as a junior ally to the DMK shows it has not progressed much since the advent of the Modi-led BJP decimated it nationally.
Stagnation and Challenges
The resilient show in the 2024 polls, in what was an extremely challenging election, had raised hopes in the party about the future. But the elections that followed disappointed Congress cadres no end. The 2026 results, despite the solitary win, betray a paralysing stagnation. For Congress, the challenges remain as they were post-May 2014: its decimation in the heartland and BJP’s success in painting it with the 'Muslim brush'.
Moving Forward
Moving forward, Congress has to find a way to confront the BJP in bipolar states that span the north, besides Gujarat and Goa. The party showed spunk in December 2018 when it swept Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, but lost them five years later. A big handicap for Congress has been the BJP’s unbridled push for polarisation, which has delivered even in states like Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, which have small Muslim populations.
Attempts at Revival
Pushed to the brink, the party did think out-of-the-box in the interim. The Bharat Jodo Yatra was a bold attempt to neutralise polarisation, as Rahul Gandhi walked the country’s length and breadth to target the BJP on communalism and marginalisation of underprivileged communities. The yatra had a direct impact on the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Its accounts seized, its ranks dented by defections and the campaign dominated by Ayodhya and associated issues, Congress and INDIA bloc allies still managed to run the BJP ragged. Congress won a good chunk of seats in Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, and with allies in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and Maharashtra. It did well on southern turfs of Karnataka and Telangana.
Resurgent BJP
But just when Congress felt that religious mobilisation had run its course, it lost to poor management in Haryana and Maharashtra polls. And since then, it has been confronted by a resurgent BJP push for polarisation, while EC-mandated SIR, poor campaign planning and lax allies have not helped matters. As the BJP wins new territories to add to its rock solid northern and western states, Congress faces the imperative of winning on the BJP’s heartland hegemonies if it has to stand a chance in the 2029 Lok Sabha polls.
