The 2026 assembly elections across key states have concluded, with all eyes now on exit polls ahead of the final results on May 4. The elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry have drawn significant attention due to their political stakes and intense campaigns.
West Bengal: A Neck-and-Neck Battle
In West Bengal, polling across 142 constituencies in the second phase saw over 3.22 crore voters cast their ballots. Exit polls indicate a tightly contested race, with most projections pointing to a hung assembly. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are locked in a close fight, with each projected to win around 145 seats. This signals a strong challenge to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's long-standing dominance. Issues such as the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls and voter eligibility concerns dominated the campaign.
Tamil Nadu: DMK Poised for Return, but Vijay Emerges as Disruptor
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin expressed confidence in a favorable outcome, stating, "On the 4th, the results of the election will be out, and I believe you will receive good news." Speaking at a May Day event in Chennai, Stalin attributed the expected victory to the efforts of party workers and reiterated his commitment to the legacy of his father, M Karunanidhi. While several exit polls project the DMK-led alliance retaining power, the emergence of actor-politician Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has added a new dimension. Some surveys suggest TVK could become a major force, potentially disrupting the traditional DMK-AIADMK binary.
Stalin's Confidence
Stalin emphasized that the party's hard work would be rewarded on May 4. "We are set to reap the rewards of the hard work put in by our party cadres. There is absolutely no change in this and not even the slightest deviation," he said. He added that his government is guided by the principle of "Everything for Everyone" and dismissed suggestions that his confidence was based solely on exit polls.
Assam: BJP Set for Comfortable Victory
In Assam, exit polls predict a comfortable victory for the BJP, with the party projected to secure a decisive lead over the Congress. This would reinforce the BJP's dominance in the state and potentially secure another term in power.
Kerala: A Close Contest with UDF Slight Edge
Kerala is shaping up to be a closely fought contest. Exit polls give a slight edge to the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), though projections vary. The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) remains within striking distance, and the outcome is seen as a test of whether Kerala's traditional pattern of alternating governments will reassert itself. CPM general secretary M A Baby noted that exit polls can produce contradictory results, adding, "In the case of Keralam, it could be very close to reality because it's a very close fight. There would still be the possibility of us getting a majority."
Puducherry: NDA Likely to Retain Power
In Puducherry, exit polls indicate that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led locally by the AINRC-BJP alliance, is likely to retain power with a comfortable majority.
Security Tightened in Kolkata Amid TMC Allegations
Security has been tightened outside the strong room at Netaji Indoor Stadium in Kolkata ahead of vote counting on May 4. The Trinamool Congress has alleged that the BJP, in collusion with the Election Commission, is attempting to open ballot boxes without the presence of authorized party representatives. Senior TMC leaders Shashi Panja and Kunal Ghosh staged a sit-in protest, with Ghosh claiming that individuals were tampering with postal ballots. West Bengal Chief Electoral Officer Manoj Kumar Agarwal, however, stated that EVM strong rooms are "safe and secure" and there is no controversy.
BJP's Response
BJP MP Saumitra Khan responded to the protests, saying, "Ex-Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee lost against Suvendu Adhikari, and TMC is certainly wiped out of West Bengal. The public did not vote for the TMC." He accused the TMC of attempting to capture EVMs, as they allegedly did in 2021.
Overall Picture
Exit polls across states suggest a mixed political picture, with potential regime change in some regions and continuity in others. The counting of votes is scheduled for May 4, setting the stage for a closely watched day that will determine the political landscape in these key states.
