One Year of Trump 2.0 and India: A Realistic Partnership Emerges
As the world moves into the second calendar year of the Trump 2.0 era, New Delhi's diplomacy with Washington presents a complex picture. The relationship has evolved into a more hard-edged and realistic partnership, avoiding both steep decline and effortless growth. President Trump's return to the White House disrupted the traditional predictability in US-India engagement, forcing India to recalibrate its strategic approach while navigating America's "First" policies.
Trade Tensions and Tariff Battles
Trade quickly became a major fault line in the relationship. Despite early hopes for a Bilateral Trade Agreement aiming at $500 billion in trade, Washington revived its doctrine of "reciprocity." This led to India being labeled as a difficult and protected market. Higher tariffs followed, with sustained pressure to open politically sensitive sectors.
India faced additional tariffs for importing Russian oil, even though other countries like China and Turkey continued similar purchases. New Delhi kept negotiation channels open and signaled willingness to address specific concerns. However, India drew firm boundaries around agriculture, dairy, and regulatory sovereignty, protecting these critical areas.
Steady Defense and Security Cooperation
Importantly, trade turbulence did not engulf the entire relationship. Defense and security cooperation continued with remarkable steadiness. This stability was underpinned by institutional frameworks built over two decades. Joint military exercises expanded, intelligence coordination deepened, and defense technology cooperation moved forward with minimal public drama.
Cooperation in emerging fields like semiconductors, artificial intelligence, clean energy, and space continued to expand. Much of this progress was driven by private industry and sub-national actors, creating layers of engagement less vulnerable to political turbulence. Innovation-driven initiatives linking defense start-ups and private industry gained traction, reinforcing strategic collaboration.
China's Shadow and Regional Dynamics
China loomed large over the relationship, shaping both convergence and anxiety. Trump 2.0 produced a paradoxical approach towards Beijing, with sharp rhetoric on trade and technology combined with signals of interest in stabilizing the broader relationship. For India, this ambiguity proved unsettling.
Any US accommodation with China that sidelines regional security concerns complicates India's strategic environment. New Delhi responded by quietly reinforcing its own regional diplomacy. India deepened ties with ASEAN, Russia, the EU, the UK, Quad partners, Indian Ocean states, and key middle powers in BRICS and G-20 groupings. India even recalibrated ties with Beijing itself.
South Asia and Migration Pressures
South Asia presented another delicate test. Trump's renewed engagement with Pakistan and family business deals involving crypto and mining revived familiar sensitivities in New Delhi. India chose not to overreact, reiterating concerns about cross-border terrorism while ensuring bilateral ties with the US were not held hostage to Islamabad's re-entry into American thinking.
US policy towards Iran added further complexity. Trump's uncompromising stance and encouragement of protestors for regime change narrowed India's already constrained engagement with Tehran, affecting long-term connectivity and energy considerations.
One of the most politically sensitive pressures came from migration policy. Tightened scrutiny of work visas, higher costs for employers, and uncertainty around student visas directly affected Indian professionals and students. This injected a human dimension into bilateral tensions. For India, mobility is central to the social and economic fabric of the relationship. New Delhi consistently framed talent flows as mutually beneficial, arguing restrictive policies risk undermining America's innovation ecosystem.
Quad Support and Strategic Importance
US support for the Quad alliance fluctuated during this period. Frictions over tariffs and trade raised apprehensions in India about its relevance to US Indo-Pacific strategy. However, India remains critical to US ambitions to diversify supply chains, secure the Indo-Pacific commons, and shape technology ecosystems aligned with democratic norms. There is no substitute for India's scale, location, and strategic weight.
A Grounded Relationship
After one year, the balance sheet shows a relationship that has become more hard-edged and realistic. India has engaged with the US without illusions, prepared to cooperate where interests align and resist where they diverge. The US remains an indispensable partner, but not an unquestioned anchor.
By diversifying external relationships while keeping Washington closely engaged, India has negotiated Trump 2.0 with caution and composure. The relationship may be noisier and less sentimental, but it is also more grounded. It is shaped not by expectation, but by careful calculation and mutual interest.
