Pakistan's Naval Buildup with Chinese Submarines
The strategic balance in the Northern Indian Ocean faces a significant shift as Pakistan moves closer to acquiring eight advanced Hangor-class submarines from China. This $5 billion deal represents one of the most substantial naval acquisitions in recent regional history and poses a direct challenge to India's maritime dominance.
The Pakistani Navy's new submarine fleet, scheduled for delivery in the coming years, will dramatically enhance its underwater warfare capabilities. These diesel-electric submarines feature cutting-edge Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) technology, allowing them to remain submerged for extended periods of 3-4 weeks without surfacing.
Advanced Capabilities of Hangor-Class Submarines
The Type 039A Yuan-class submarines, designated as Hangor-class for Pakistan, represent a quantum leap in conventional submarine technology. Unlike traditional diesel submarines that must surface frequently to recharge batteries, AIP-equipped vessels can operate silently for weeks, making detection extremely difficult.
More concerning for Indian strategic planners is the potential integration of nuclear-capable cruise missiles with these submarines. Pakistan already possesses the Babur-3 Submarine Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM), developed in 2017, which could theoretically be integrated with the Hangor-class submarines.
This development could provide Pakistan with a credible sea-based nuclear deterrent, completing what strategists call the nuclear triad - the ability to launch nuclear weapons from land, air, and sea platforms.
India's Naval Modernization Challenges
While Pakistan advances its submarine capabilities, India's ambitious naval modernization plans face significant hurdles. The Indian Navy currently operates 19 submarines, with 16 being diesel-powered and three nuclear-powered. However, many of these conventional submarines are approaching the end of their operational lifespan.
India's Project 75-I, approved by the Defence Acquisition Council in 2019, aims to induct six modern conventional submarines equipped with indigenous AIP technology. Unfortunately, this critical program has been plagued by bureaucratic delays, technology sharing issues, and a lack of foreign Original Equipment Manufacturers.
Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (MDL) remains the only contender for this project, collaborating with Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems. The timeline for implementing indigenous AIP technology appears increasingly delayed, with refitting scheduled for INS Khanderi in July 2026 and sea trials not expected before July 2027.
Strategic Implications and Way Forward
The addition of advanced Chinese submarines to Pakistan's naval arsenal will inevitably alter the power dynamics in the Northern Indian Ocean. Historically, the Indian Navy has provided crucial cover during India-Pakistan conflicts, but a technologically enhanced Pakistani submarine fleet complicates this strategic advantage.
New Delhi currently has an ambitious blueprint for naval expansion, with 54 naval vessels under various stages of construction and a target of expanding to 200 warships and submarines by 2030. However, the slower pace of indigenization, import dependency, and aging platforms continue to hamper these ambitions.
Experts suggest that India must prioritize submarines capable of extended submerged operations and consider cost-effective alternatives like sea drones. These options provide significant capabilities at lower costs compared to expensive aircraft carriers and missiles, and can be manufactured more quickly.
The evolving maritime threat environment necessitates accelerated modernization and stronger collaboration with defense partner states. As Pakistan enhances its underwater warfare capabilities through Chinese assistance, India must streamline its acquisition processes and overcome bureaucratic obstacles to maintain its naval superiority in these strategically vital waters.
