Bangladesh's Political Earthquake: Hasina's Death Sentence Tests India's Diplomacy
The political landscape in South Asia witnessed a seismic shift on November 17, 2025, when Bangladesh's International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) delivered a death sentence to former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The verdict found her guilty of crimes against humanity during the violent crackdown on student protests in Dhaka in 2024, an event known as the July Revolution.
Currently living in exile in India, Hasina has pleaded not guilty to all charges, accusing the Muhammad Yunus-led caretaker government of conducting a political witch-hunt. The irony lies in the fact that the ICT was originally revived in 2009 by Hasina herself, creating what many observers now call a Frankenstein's monster that has turned against its creator.
India's Diplomatic Dilemma Intensifies
The verdict has placed New Delhi in a delicate diplomatic position. Bangladesh has already submitted a formal extradition request under the 2013 Extradition Treaty between the two nations. While India has acknowledged receiving the request, it has not yet issued any formal response, indicating the complexity of the situation.
Legal experts suggest India holds the prerogative to reject the extradition request, especially given concerns that the trial appears driven more by political vendetta than genuine justice. The charges were brought by an unelected interim government rather than a legitimate, representative authority, further complicating the matter.
This development forces India to re-examine every aspect of its bilateral relationship with Bangladesh while balancing domestic political pressures and evolving regional geopolitics. The crisis represents not just a legal challenge but a strategic question tied to India's core political objectives of security, economic development, and regional stability.
Threat to Years of Bilateral Cooperation
The conviction threatens to undermine years of carefully built cooperation between New Delhi and Dhaka. During her administration, Sheikh Hasina safeguarded India's security interests by cracking down on anti-India groups and cooperating with Indian agencies operating in the Northeast.
Her government also played a crucial role in checking rising Islamic fundamentalism by co-opting radical-conservative forces like Hefazat-e-Islam and prosecuting collaborators, largely from Jamaat-e-Islami. This strategic cooperation has significantly deteriorated under the current interim government.
India's major foreign policy initiatives now face significant constraints. Key projects including the Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal (BBIN) Motor Vehicles Agreement, BIMSTEC cooperation, and various cross-border connectivity projects that flourished under Hasina's administration now hang in the balance.
Geopolitical Realignment and Security Concerns
The Yunus-led interim government has initiated noticeable shifts in Bangladesh's foreign policy orientation. The administration is openly courting China, cultivating closer ties with Pakistan, and positioning Bangladesh as a guardian of the ocean - moves that have raised concerns in New Delhi.
Alarming symbolic gestures, such as Yunus gifting Pakistan's military chief a book depicting India's Northeast as part of Greater Bangladesh, have particularly worried Indian security establishments. Additionally, cross-border migration into Indian states like Tripura and Meghalaya has increased under the new regime.
With Jamaat-e-Islami re-emerging as a major political actor and Hefazat gaining influence, India has lost significant politico-strategic depth in Bangladesh. The shrinking of Bangladesh's liberal-secular constituency, historically supportive of friendly ties with India, combined with the growing influence of Islamist groups, presents long-term challenges for regional stability.
Economic and Strategic Implications
The bilateral progress achieved under Hasina's leadership now faces potential reversal. The Hasina administration had facilitated Indian investments by signing a bilateral investment treaty in 2009, enabling Indian companies to enter sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and pharmaceuticals.
In the current volatile political environment, durable solutions to critical issues like energy cooperation, river-water sharing, and transit arrangements appear increasingly unlikely. The uncertainty comes at a time when India's Act East Policy and efforts to unlock the economic potential of the Northeast depend heavily on cooperative relations with Dhaka.
With the Awami League barred from contesting elections scheduled for February 2026, political instability is expected to benefit forces inimical to India's interests. Many observers have accused the interim government of complicity in the persecution of minorities, further complicating the ethical dimensions of India's diplomatic calculations.
The Path Forward
India faces a critical decision that will shape its relationship with Bangladesh for years to come. Most analysts suggest that New Delhi should take a pragmatic stance on the extradition question, evaluating the case on its merits while considering the political context of the charges.
Many experts argue that India should continue supporting the swift holding of free and fair elections in Bangladesh, enabling its people to choose a legitimate government and end the political instability that has persisted since August 2024. This approach would align with India's stated commitment to democratic processes while protecting its strategic interests in the region.
The coming weeks will reveal how India navigates this complex diplomatic challenge, balancing legal obligations with strategic imperatives in one of its most important bilateral relationships.
