The foundational assumption that the United States would perpetually guarantee European security is crumbling. This seismic shift, accelerated by the potential US annexation of Greenland and a revised American National Security Strategy, is forcing the European Union and its member states into a historic and urgent re-armament. For India, this unfolding geopolitical realignment presents a significant window of strategic opportunity.
The Imperative for a Fortified Europe
The catalyst for this transformation is multifaceted. The Russian invasion of Ukraine served as an initial wake-up call, but actions from the Trump administration have turned European defence into an immediate priority. As reported by Shane Harris in The Atlantic, the scenario where the US could simply declare Greenland American territory via a social media post, with Denmark and NATO powerless to respond, starkly revealed the continent's military vulnerability.
This perception is compounded by Washington's latest National Security Strategy, which signals a retreat from an 80-year commitment to Europe's defence and indicates a willingness to back right-wing political parties within Europe. Consequently, European capitals are scrambling to overhaul their security posture. In the past year, a series of measures have been announced to boost defence budgets, with a medium-term goal of raising spending from 2% to 3.5% of GDP, and further to 5% by 2035.
The Daunting Challenges of Military Mobilisation
Building a credible, independent European fighting force is a Herculean task that will reshape societies. The EU has already adjusted fiscal rules to allow higher deficits for military spending, but this means wrenching choices: welfare programs and environmental goals will likely face cuts to fund the armed forces.
Beyond financing, Europe faces a severe human resources challenge. Convincing a generation raised in prolonged peace and prosperity to choose military careers will test political leadership and social cohesion. Forging disparate national armies—each with its own history, equipment, and doctrine—into a unified command structure is a long-term endeavour. While NATO provides a framework, a NATO without the US anchor leaves a massive void in command, logistics, intelligence, strategic lift, and nuclear deterrence.
The political path is fraught. The rise of right-wing parties sympathetic to Washington in key nations like Germany, France, Britain, and Poland could lead to a re-armament coordinated with the US, albeit on less deferential terms. Otherwise, Europe will attempt a fully independent course. Coherent re-armament demands European cohesion; a divided continent may re-arm slowly, incoherently, or not at all.
Geopolitical Ripples and India's Strategic Opening
External pressures will dictate the pace. Russia's behaviour remains decisive; continued aggression will concentrate European minds and accelerate decisions. Europe's diplomacy will thus aim to manage China's support for Russia, navigating a delicate line to avoid turning Beijing into a direct adversary.
Within this new European security architecture, certain states will gain prominence. Poland, with its rising defence spending, favourable demographics, and frontline history with Russia, is poised to see its influence grow. Turkey emerges as a critical swing state, balancing its NATO membership, managed rivalry with Russia, and converging interests with Moscow in West and Central Asia. Britain's role remains key, provided it navigates the growing transatlantic divergence.
This is where India's opportunity lies. A Europe less anchored to Washington and intensely focused on building its own security capabilities will actively seek diversified partnerships to reduce costs and achieve economies of scale. As a major defence manufacturer and a strategic Indo-Pacific power, India is well-positioned to become such a partner. However, the depth and speed of this cooperation will be tempered by historical ties: India's longstanding relationship with Russia and Europe's economic entanglement with China will act as limiting factors.
Nevertheless, the window is open. Europe's urgent journey toward strategic autonomy, born from necessity, creates a new space for engagement where India can offer technological collaboration, joint development projects, and a shared interest in a multipolar world order. How New Delhi navigates this complex landscape will be a test of its own strategic foresight.
