China's Influence Expands in Bangladesh Following Political Shift
China's influence in Bangladesh, significantly boosted by the 2024 removal of New Delhi-aligned leader Sheikh Hasina, is poised to deepen further after this week's election. However, politicians and regional analysts emphasize that India, as a massive neighboring power, cannot be sidelined entirely in Dhaka's foreign policy calculations.
A New Political Landscape Cools Ties with India
Bangladesh votes on February 12, with the two frontrunner parties historically maintaining far cooler relations with India compared to Sheikh Hasina during her uninterrupted 15-year rule from 2009. Her Awami League party is now banned, and she resides in self-imposed exile in New Delhi.
Meanwhile, China has aggressively stepped up its investment and diplomatic outreach in Dhaka. A recent high-profile move includes signing a defense agreement to construct a drone factory near Bangladesh's sensitive border with India. Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen is frequently visible in meetings with Bangladeshi politicians, officials, and journalists, as documented by the embassy's social media, discussing multi-billion-dollar infrastructure projects and broader bilateral cooperation.
Public Sentiment and Political Rhetoric
"People in Bangladesh see India as complicit with Sheikh Hasina’s crimes," stated Humaiun Kobir, foreign affairs adviser to leading prime ministerial candidate Tarique Rahman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). "People will not accept building relations or doing business with a country that is harboring a terrorist and allowing them to destabilize our country."
Rahman himself has adopted a more conciliatory public stance, telling Reuters last week, "We'll try to have friendship with all countries, but of course, protecting the interests of my people and my country."
Strained Relations Spill into Culture and Diplomacy
Dhaka-Delhi ties have deteriorated noticeably in recent weeks, even spilling into the realm of cricket, a sport passionately followed in both nations. A celebrated Bangladeshi bowler was dropped from an Indian Premier League team following pressure from Hindu groups after attacks on the Hindu minority in Bangladesh.
In retaliation, Dhaka banned broadcasts of the league scheduled for March–May. Bangladesh also requested that its matches for the February-March men's cricket World Cup be relocated from India to Sri Lanka, a request rejected by the International Cricket Council, leading to Bangladesh's removal from the tournament.
Both countries have curtailed entry visas for each other's citizens, and high-profile public engagements between Indian and Bangladeshi officials have become rare since Hasina's fall. A notable exception was Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar's meeting with Tarique Rahman in Dhaka in December to offer condolences on the death of his mother, former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia.
Bangladesh's interim government has repeatedly, yet unsuccessfully, asked India to extradite Hasina, especially after a Dhaka court sentenced her to death late last year for ordering a deadly crackdown on an uprising. A United Nations report estimated up to 1,400 fatalities and thousands wounded, although Hasina has denied ordering the killings.
Election Accusations and Foreign Policy Posturing
Ahead of the election, the BNP and its closest rival, the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami, have exchanged accusations of courting foreign interests. Jamaat alleges the BNP is too close to India, while the BNP points to Jamaat's historic ties with Pakistan, India's longstanding rival.
"Not Dilli, not Pindi, Bangladesh before everything," Rahman told a recent rally, referencing New Delhi and Pakistan's military headquarters in Rawalpindi. Indian officials have privately acknowledged that with the Awami League out of power, New Delhi must engage constructively with whoever forms the next government. India's foreign ministry did not respond to requests for comment on the evolving situation.
China's Steadily Building Economic and Strategic Influence
China has been Bangladesh's largest trading partner for over a decade, with annual bilateral trade hovering around $18 billion. Imports of Chinese goods account for nearly 95% of this total. Chinese companies have also invested hundreds of millions of dollars in Bangladesh since Hasina's departure.
Under Hasina, Indian conglomerates like the Adani Group expanded their footprint in Bangladesh, although no new major deals have materialized recently. "China is steadily building its influence both in the open and behind the scenes, benefiting from the crisis in India-Bangladesh relations," said Constantino Xavier, a senior fellow at the New Delhi-based Centre for Social and Economic Progress.
"China has also been able to capitalize on declining U.S. engagement and global trade tensions, positioning itself as a more credible and predictable economic partner for Dhaka," he added.
Analysts note Bangladesh is expected to continue strengthening ties with China because it offers substantial economic incentives and, unlike Hindu-majority India, typically avoids being drawn into domestic controversies involving Bangladesh's Hindu minority during periods of unrest.
"If Dhaka and New Delhi are unable to get things back on track, there will be more incentive for the next government in Bangladesh to go full steam ahead with Beijing," said Thomas Kean of the International Crisis Group.
Pragmatic Engagement: Bangladesh Cannot Sever Ties with India
Despite China's ascendancy, analysts universally stress that deepening engagement with Beijing does not equate to severing ties with New Delhi. "Bangladesh needs both China and India, and you have to think of it in pragmatic terms," explained Lailufar Yasmin of Dhaka University. "While ties with China may improve, any party that comes to power will not be imprudent enough to ignore India."
Bangladesh, bordered by India on three sides and the Bay of Bengal to the south, relies heavily on its western neighbor for trade, transit, and security cooperation. Conversely, New Delhi requires stable relations with Dhaka to manage its extensive land border effectively. Hasina's government had previously assisted in cracking down on anti-India insurgents based in Bangladesh.
Government data shows annual bilateral trade with India has remained stable at approximately $13.5 billion, dominated by Indian exports to Bangladesh, despite the political rupture. The Adani Group has even increased power supplies to Bangladesh in recent months to alleviate shortages, although Dhaka has criticized the tariffs negotiated under Hasina as excessively high.
Historical Grievances and New Political Voices
While India played a crucial role in Bangladesh's independence from Pakistan in 1971, long-standing grievances persist. These include disputes over water-sharing, border killings, and resentment among many Bangladeshis who perceive India as having legitimized Hasina's increasingly unpopular rule.
Leaders of newer political groups, like the Gen Z-backed National Citizen Party aligned with Jamaat, have adopted a hardline stance. "It’s not just election rhetoric," NCP chief Nahid Islam told Reuters. "New Delhi’s hegemony is deeply felt among young people; it’s one of the main issues of this election."
In conclusion, the geopolitical landscape in South Asia is undergoing a significant recalibration. China's influence in Bangladesh is undeniably on the rise, fueled by investment, diplomacy, and a political vacuum left by Hasina's pro-India alignment. However, geographic reality, economic interdependence, and strategic necessity dictate that Bangladesh will likely pursue a nuanced, pragmatic foreign policy that carefully balances its engagements with both the rising dragon to the north and the enduring giant to the west.
