The ongoing political and economic turmoil in Bangladesh has escalated into a direct and significant security concern for India, with experts warning of a highly volatile situation that rivals could exploit. According to foreign policy analyst Robinder Sachdev, the scenario is 'absolutely alarming' for New Delhi, presenting a clear window of opportunity for Pakistan and, by extension, China, to enhance their influence in India's immediate neighbourhood.
A Perfect Storm of Crisis in Bangladesh
Bangladesh is currently grappling with a multi-faceted crisis. The nation faces severe political instability following the contentious general elections held on January 7, 2024, which were boycotted by the main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Alongside this political deadlock, the country is in the grip of a serious economic downturn, marked by soaring inflation and dwindling foreign exchange reserves. This combination has triggered widespread public discontent and violent street protests, creating an environment of deep uncertainty.
Robinder Sachdev, president of the think tank The Imagindia Institute, emphasized that this instability is not contained within Bangladesh's borders. He stated that the situation directly threatens India's national security, particularly the stability of its sensitive Northeastern states. A fragile Bangladesh, he argues, could become a breeding ground for anti-India activities and cross-border terrorism, problems that India has long associated with Pakistan's intelligence apparatus, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
Strategic Opening for Pakistan and China
The core of Sachdev's warning lies in the strategic opportunity the crisis presents to India's rivals. 'Pakistan can take advantage,' he asserted plainly. A weakened and distracted Bangladeshi government may find it more difficult to monitor and curb the activities of groups hostile to India, potentially allowing Pakistan's ISI to re-establish networks and leverage the chaos.
Furthermore, the analyst connected Pakistan's potential gains to the broader strategic ambitions of China. Beijing, which shares a 'all-weather friendship' with Islamabad, has made substantial economic and military inroads into Bangladesh through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China would likely prefer a government in Dhaka that is more amenable to its interests and less aligned with India. Therefore, any instability that diminishes India's influence and creates space for Pakistani manoeuvring ultimately serves China's larger goal of encircling India and dominating South Asia.
'Wherever Pakistan gets an advantage, it is actually an advantage for the China-Pakistan axis against India,' Sachdev explained, framing the Bangladesh crisis as a proxy battleground in the wider regional power struggle.
India's Critical Stakes and Necessary Response
The implications for India are profound. A hostile or failed state on its eastern border would severely compromise the security of the chicken's neck Siliguri Corridor, the narrow strip of land that connects mainland India to its Northeastern states. This could destabilize the entire region, impacting development projects and complicating India's 'Act East' policy.
Sachdev's analysis serves as a urgent call for Indian policymakers. It underscores the necessity for India to adopt a proactive and nuanced diplomatic approach. New Delhi must move beyond its current stance and engage more deeply with all political stakeholders in Bangladesh to encourage dialogue and stability. The goal must be to support a peaceful, democratic, and economically viable Bangladesh, as its well-being is inextricably linked to India's own security and prosperity. Failing to do so risks ceding ground to a rival axis that is keen to capitalize on the turmoil.
In conclusion, the unrest in Bangladesh is far more than a domestic issue for a neighbouring country. It represents a clear and present danger to India's strategic environment. As Robinder Sachdev's warning highlights, the time for India to formulate a decisive and effective response is now, before adversaries like Pakistan and China turn this alarming situation into a permanent strategic setback.
