Missiles, mines, attacks on ships, a US blockade, and Iran’s closure have effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz since late February, as the Middle East conflict escalated. Several weeks later, India—an economy dependent on imports for 90% of its crude needs—has managed its oil supply situation better than most expected. Despite lacking large strategic petroleum reserves compared to the US, China, and Japan, India has leveraged its crude diversification strategy and strong ties with Russia to weather one of its worst crude oil supply shocks in years.
Resilient Crude Availability
This is not to say that all is well with India’s energy supplies. The Strait of Hormuz handles one-fifth of the world’s crude oil trade and is equally vital for India’s LPG and LNG supplies, which have been hit by the crunch. Yet crude availability remains resilient. According to the government, India has around 60 days of petroleum supplies in various forms, including strategic reserves. But with 20% of global crude supply disrupted for over 2.5 months, where is India getting its oil?
India’s Crude Procurement Strategy
According to Sumit Ritolia, Manager of Modelling and Refining at Kpler, India’s crude import strategy has shifted significantly since March 2026 as Strait of Hormuz disruptions tightened Middle Eastern flows and increased freight and logistical risks. Indian refiners have aggressively diversified toward the Atlantic Basin and non-Strait of Hormuz-linked barrels, increasing purchases from the US, Brazil, West Africa, and Venezuela to offset weaker Iraqi and Gulf flows. “The shift has not been a direct replacement of Middle Eastern barrels from a single source, but rather a broader re-optimisation of the crude slate based on availability, refinery compatibility, freight economics, and sanctions exposure. Refiners have remained more aggressive buyers of Russian and opportunistic Atlantic Basin barrels, along with bypassed flow of Saudi and UAE grades where available,” Ritolia explains.
Russian Oil: The Backbone of Supply
Russia has dominated India’s crude imports since the war with Ukraine in 2022. The Trump administration’s sanctions dented supplies from December 2025 to February 2026, but Russian crude remained the highest component of India’s import basket. In March 2026, with the US-Iran war, Russian oil flows to India reached levels last seen when India was buying crude at huge discounts. Now, Russian crude is being bought at a premium as global prices remain high. The surge has been aided by the Trump administration’s temporary waiver of sanctions on Russian crude at sea to stabilize global prices. The waiver, first granted in March, has been revised twice. India maintains that its crude purchases are driven by energy security and economics, waiver or not. However, the waiver makes it more viable to buy Russian crude from majors like Rosneft and Lukoil, which are under sanctions.
As a result, Russian crude’s dominance has only increased. According to Kpler data, Russian crude flows recovered to ~1.9–2.0 million barrels per day (mbd) in March after easing earlier in the year. May imports are around 1.9 mbd, with the monthly average expected at 1.8–1.9 mbd. Russia has supplied over 140 million barrels of crude to India since the start of the US-Iran war. Critically, Russian crude via Baltic, Black Sea, or Pacific routes remains fully outside Hormuz risk.
Middle East Supplies Through Alternative Routes
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, India’s crude imports in April fell to around 4.4 mbd (from approximately 5.2 mbd), as nearly 50% of its supplies (around 2.5 mbd) normally transit the chokepoint. Iraqi imports dropped to nearly zero, and Gulf flows were sharply curtailed, says Sourav Mitra, Partner – Oil & Gas at Grant Thornton Bharat. “Indian refiners pivoted to a diversified mix, led by Russia (around 30–37% or 1.5–1.7 mbd), alongside Saudi Arabia (0.65–0.70 mbd) and the UAE (0.60–0.62 mbd), with additional barrels from Venezuela, Brazil, and minimal Iranian cargoes,” he explains.
But with Hormuz closed, how are supplies from Saudi Arabia and the UAE reaching India? “Middle East supplies are being rerouted through Saudi’s East-West pipeline to Yanbu (Red Sea) and the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, together offering significant bypass capacity, enabling flows via Yanbu and Fujairah to India, while non-Gulf crude continues on open-ocean routes,” Mitra explains. “However, these reroutings add around 4–10 days via the Red Sea route and other longer global diversions, increasing freight costs, even as India sustains supply through diversification.”
The Return of Venezuelan Crude
Venezuelan crude has made a notable return to India in recent months, helping partially offset the decline in Gulf-linked supply. India had stopped buying Venezuelan crude after US sanctions, but with the Trump administration’s moves in Venezuela, it is now back in the import basket. Venezuelan crude imports have risen sharply, reaching the highest levels in years. In April and May, Venezuela entered the top five crude oil suppliers for India since the US-Iran war began. “The increase has been driven by the opening of the oil sector in Venezuela, more availability, favorable pricing, and refiners seeking heavier replacement barrels amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Venezuelan grades have become particularly attractive for complex Indian refiners as they help offset the growing share of lighter crude in the import slate while supporting secondary unit utilization and middle distillate yields,” says Sumit Ritolia.
Global Supply Crunch and Import Decline
Even as India maintains adequate crude stocks, its overall crude imports have declined in recent months. According to Kpler data, imports are running roughly 700–800 thousand barrels per day (kbd) below typical levels, as tighter global crude availability and ongoing Hormuz disruptions constrain flows into Asia. “While refiners have diversified aggressively toward Russian, Venezuelan, US, and Atlantic Basin barrels, the market remains structurally tight, and replacement volumes are not fully offsetting lost Middle Eastern availability,” Ritolia cautions.
Looking ahead, there is no clear visibility on full normalization of Hormuz flows. “India’s crude import mix is likely to remain broadly similar to current patterns. Russian barrels are expected to remain the backbone of the import slate, supplemented by higher Atlantic Basin and Venezuelan crude intake as refiners continue prioritizing supply security, refinery optimization, and freight economics over traditional sourcing patterns,” he concludes.
Demand Management Through Price Hikes
Even as it secures supplies amid global disruptions, India is indirectly curbing demand through petrol and diesel price hikes. While helping oil marketing companies partially recover losses with crude prices above $100, the recent hikes also discourage unnecessary consumption. Petrol and diesel prices have recently been hiked by Rs 3.90 per litre after four years of no revision. The government has also imposed a windfall gains tax to discourage refiners from exporting petrol and diesel, securing supply for domestic needs.
