US Supreme Court Postpones Trump Tariff Ruling, Extends Market Uncertainty
The US Supreme Court declined to issue an immediate ruling on the legal challenge to former President Donald Trump's proposed global tariffs this Wednesday. This decision prolongs uncertainty for investors worldwide. The apex court did not indicate when it would take up the matter or provide a timeline for its final decision.
Global Markets Await Clarity on Sweeping Tariff Measures
Global financial markets are closely tracking this case due to its far-reaching implications. The outcome will significantly impact global trade flows, inflation dynamics, corporate earnings, and overall risk sentiment. Any clarity from the US Supreme Court, whether in favor of or against the tariffs, is expected to trigger sharp reactions across equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities worldwide.
Indian Equity Markets Feel the Pressure
Indian equity markets have already come under pressure amid concerns over elevated US tariffs on Indian exports. Key affected sectors include engineering goods, textiles, auto components, and select chemicals. This uncertainty has weighed heavily on export-oriented stocks, contributing to a broader risk-off tone in domestic markets.
Market participants believe the eventual court ruling could have a decisive impact on the Indian stock market and commodities. A verdict striking down the tariffs could ease trade-related headwinds, improve earnings visibility for exporters, and trigger a sharp relief rally in equities. Conversely, a prolonged legal battle or an adverse ruling could extend volatility and keep risk appetite subdued.
Expert Analysis on Potential Market Reactions
Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, shared his insights. "There is a high probability of the verdict going against Trump. However, the details will be crucial—whether the ruling partially strikes down the tariffs or declares them entirely illegal," he said.
He explained that market reaction would depend on the breadth and clarity of the judgment. "If the Supreme Court declares the Trump tariffs illegal in their entirety, Indian markets are likely to see a strong rally, as India has been among the worst affected by the steep 50% tariffs. Such a verdict would be a clear positive for risk assets globally," Vijayakumar added.
According to him, sectors that have borne the brunt of recent corrections present opportunities. These include:
- Financials
- Consumer discretionary
- Capital goods
- Industrials
Other market experts note that a favorable ruling could support foreign portfolio inflows into Indian equities. Reduced trade tensions would improve the global growth outlook and risk appetite.
Precious Metals React to Ongoing Uncertainty
On the commodity front, bullion prices remain supported by ongoing uncertainty around US trade policy, geopolitical risks, and expectations of sticky inflation.
Ajay Kedia, Director at Kedia Advisory, commented on the situation. "The prevailing uncertainty continues to embed a risk premium in gold and silver prices. As long as tariff-related concerns persist, markets will price in the risk of higher inflation and slower global growth, both of which are supportive of precious metals," Kedia said.
He added that sustained tariffs could push up input costs and consumer prices in the US, reinforcing gold's role as an inflation hedge. "However, a Supreme Court ruling against the tariffs would likely improve risk sentiment, strengthen equities, and reduce demand for safe-haven assets. In that scenario, gold and silver could see profit booking and short-term downside," Kedia noted.
Analysts also highlight that movements in the US dollar and bond yields following the court's decision will be key determinants of the direction of precious metals.
What Investors Should Watch Next
Until clarity emerges, investors are expected to remain cautious. They will track legal developments in the US alongside key macro data and central bank cues. Market participants say volatility is likely to persist in the near term, with sharp moves possible across asset classes once the Supreme Court provides guidance on the fate of the tariffs.
For Indian markets, the ruling could prove to be a decisive trigger. It may either unlock a relief rally or extend the phase of consolidation amid global uncertainty.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
