In a dramatic escalation of tensions, the United States has executed a large-scale military strike against Venezuela, resulting in the capture of the country's left-wing leader, President Nicolas Maduro, and his wife. The shocking development, which has sent geopolitical shockwaves around the globe, was accompanied by a mysterious financial windfall for an anonymous trader who appears to have predicted the event.
The Suspicious $400,000 Windfall
According to a report by The News Republic, a new and suspicious user on the prediction market platform Polymarket turned a massive profit of over $400,000 in less than a day by betting on the very events that unfolded. The account, created on December 27, placed bets on only two specific outcomes: a US bombing in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, with the bet that he would be forced out of leadership by January 31.
What makes this bet extraordinary is its timing and odds. The user wagered a staggering $35,000 when the market's prediction probability for a US bombing in Venezuela was at a mere 6%. Following the successful capture of Maduro, the account's total payout skyrocketed to $436,759.61, as reported by Axios.
Market Activity Points to Insider Knowledge
The sequence of events strongly suggests prior knowledge. Trading activity on the question "Maduro in US custody by January 31?" peaked on Friday night, just hours before the official announcement by US authorities early Saturday morning. A Wall Street Journal report noted that the market for Maduro's capture climbed sharply shortly before 10 pm ET on Friday, after languishing in low single digits for weeks.
While other Polymarket users also made similar bets and netted thousands, the scale and precision of this particular account's activity have raised serious eyebrows. This is especially pertinent as a CBS report revealed that US military officials had initially discussed action against Venezuela on Christmas Day, but later pivoted to strikes against ISIS in Nigeria, keeping the Venezuela plans tightly under wraps.
Fallout and Unanswered Questions
The identity of the trader who minted this fortune remains a complete mystery, and Polymarket has not released any official statement on the matter. The incident has ignited intense speculation about potential insider trading, with traders and observers questioning how someone could so accurately predict such a covert and world-altering military operation.
As Delcy Rodriguez steps in as the acting President of Venezuela and global powers like China, Russia, and the UK react to the US intervention, the parallel story of a nearly half-million dollar profit made from the chaos adds a complex financial layer to the geopolitical crisis. The key question now is whether this was an astonishingly lucky guess or a calculated move based on confidential information.
