Stock Market Live Updates Today: BSE Sensex, Nifty50 Set for Muted Start; Crude Oil Prices Rise 2%
The Indian equity benchmarks, BSE Sensex and Nifty50, are expected to open with a muted start on Monday, June 1, as indicated by GIFT Nifty. Market experts anticipate benchmark indices to trade within a broad range in the coming week. However, select mid-cap and small-cap counters could continue to attract interest, supported by strong earnings trends and ample domestic liquidity.
Last week, selling pressure intensified towards the close on Friday after the latest rebalancing of the MSCI Global Standard Index took effect, prompting volatility in several stocks as passive funds adjusted positions and investors recalibrated portfolios.
Global sentiment has improved somewhat following reports of a proposed 60-day ceasefire between the US and Iran, raising expectations of reduced geopolitical tensions and smoother shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz. Even so, uncertainty surrounding negotiations and recurring geopolitical developments are likely to keep investors cautious and volatility elevated.
Oil Climbs Over 2%
Crude oil prices advanced by more than 2% in early Monday trading after Israel directed its military to deepen operations inside Lebanon against the Iran-backed Hezbollah group, despite a ceasefire that had been in place for more than six weeks. As of 0028 GMT, US West Texas Intermediate crude was trading $2.37 higher, or 2.71%, at $89.73 per barrel. Brent crude futures gained $2.16, or 2.37%, to reach $93.28 a barrel.
The escalation in hostilities came shortly after the United States hosted peace discussions between Israeli and Lebanese representatives in Washington on Friday. The renewed fighting weakened market expectations that Washington and Tehran could soon announce an extension of their ceasefire arrangement, a development that had earlier pushed both Brent and WTI lower by 1.8% and 1.7%, respectively, at Friday's close.
The conflict involving Israel and Hezbollah has emerged as the most significant regional spillover from the broader Iran war. Hostilities began on March 2 when Hezbollah launched rockets and drones into Israeli territory in support of Iran. Although both sides agreed to a ceasefire in mid-April, intermittent exchanges of fire have continued.
US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he would soon decide on a proposed extension of the ceasefire agreement with Iran that was first announced in early April. The proposed arrangement would give negotiators additional time to work toward a long-term resolution of the conflict and address disputes surrounding Iran's nuclear programme. Any such agreement is expected to require Israel's participation, while Tehran has repeatedly maintained that Hezbollah must also be included in the process.
Meanwhile, concerns surrounding maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz are adding to market uncertainty. According to IG analyst Tony Sycamore, reports of mines in the strategically important oil and gas shipping corridor could delay efforts to fully restore traffic through the route. As a result, any relief to global energy markets may arrive more gradually than investors had anticipated. Sycamore noted that even if a diplomatic breakthrough is achieved, it is unlikely to result in an immediate surge in oil supplies, suggesting that supply-side concerns could continue to support prices in the near term.
Stock Market Outlook
Benchmark indices are likely to remain range-bound next week, although select midcap and smallcap stocks could continue to outperform on the back of healthy earnings momentum and strong domestic liquidity. Some relief has emerged in global market sentiment after reports suggested a 60-day US-Iran ceasefire, raising hopes of easing geopolitical tensions and gradual normalisation of shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz. However, investors are expected to remain cautious as mixed signals from the ongoing negotiations and recurring geopolitical flare-ups continue to keep volatility elevated across global financial markets.
On Friday, Indian markets witnessed a sharp decline, with the Nifty slipping 1.5% to close at 23,547 amid broad-based profit booking, a sharp rise in the India VIX (+9.4%), and weakness across Metal and Oil & Gas stocks. The pressure intensified during the final hours of trade after the MSCI Global Standard Index rebalancing came into effect, triggering heightened volatility in select stocks amid expected passive fund flow adjustments and portfolio rebalancing activity.
Adding to the pressure, lingering uncertainty surrounding the ongoing US-Iran negotiations and continued concerns over geopolitical stability in the West Asia kept overall risk appetite subdued across both global and domestic markets. While global cues have turned relatively supportive, the India Meteorological Department's downward revision of the 2026 southwest monsoon forecast to 90% of the Long Period Average from the earlier estimate of 92%, amid rising risks of weak El Nino conditions from June onward, could emerge as a key domestic overhang for rural and agriculture-linked sectors.
Additionally, RBI India has maintained a relatively resilient outlook on India's FY27 economy, retaining its GDP growth forecast at 6.9% and inflation projection at 4.6%, while cautioning that prolonged West Asia tensions, elevated crude oil prices, shipping disruptions and increasing risks of weak El Nino conditions remain key downside risks to growth and inflation. The RBI stated that strong domestic demand and resilient financial conditions continue to support the economy; however, concerns around rising food inflation, weaker monsoon forecasts and rupee volatility could keep monetary policy relatively cautious going forward.
Markets are now closely monitoring the upcoming RBI Monetary Policy meeting scheduled for June 3–5, with the policy decision expected on June 5, where the central bank is largely expected to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% amid persistent geopolitical and inflationary uncertainties. Going forward, market participants next week are expected to monitor the decision of RBI's Monetary Policy meeting, developments in US-Iran negotiations, movement in crude oil prices and shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, as any escalation in geopolitical tensions could revive volatility across global financial markets, says Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
Asian Stocks Stay Firm
Asian equities traded higher on Monday, supported by the continuing enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence-related investments, which helped offset concerns stemming from stalled diplomatic efforts in the Gulf region. The AI-driven rally sustained investor appetite for risk even as uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz contributed to firmer oil prices. Although officials from Washington and Tehran are reportedly engaged in negotiations aimed at reaching an agreement, there has been little public indication of progress from US President Donald Trump. Adding to the uncertainty, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Saturday that military action against Iran could resume if diplomatic efforts fail to produce a breakthrough.
Nifty Today Live: Bajaj Broking Nifty Outlook
The index in the daily chart formed a bearish candle with a lower high and a lower low highlighting selling pressure at higher levels as the index closed below the 20 days EMA. The index has immediate support at 54,000 levels; failure to hold above 54,000 will signal extension of the consolidation. While major support is placed at 53,000-52,500 being the confluence of the lower band of the 8th April bullish gap area and the 61.8% retracement of the previous pullback (49955-57456). On the higher side, the current week high of 55,536 will act as immediate hurdle for the index.
In another outlook, the index in a daily chart formed a strong bearish candlestick pattern with shadow on either side indicating selling pressure from the 50 days EMA. The index, contrary to expectation, breached the recent breakout area of 23,800 and closed below the 23,600 levels. Going ahead, a follow-through weakness in the coming sessions will signal extension of decline towards the recent low of 23,262 levels. While 50 days EMA will continue to act as key resistance placed around 24,000 levels. Overall, Nifty is likely to consolidate in the range of 23,200-24,000, with key support placed at 23,000-23,200 levels being the confluence of the lower band of the 8th April bullish gap area and the 61.8% retracement of the previous pullback (22,182-24,601).
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.)
