In a surprising prediction that has stirred the tech and investment world, prominent investor and former Facebook executive Chamath Palihapitiya has stated that Elon Musk's pioneering aerospace company, SpaceX, is unlikely to pursue a traditional Initial Public Offering (IPO). Instead, he forecasts a more unconventional path to going public.
The Bold Prediction: A Reverse Merger Over IPO
During a recent episode of the popular All-In podcast, which was released just a day prior, Palihapitiya shared his insights with co-hosts Jason Calacanis and David Sacks. The CEO of Social Capital, known for his work with special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), argued that SpaceX would bypass the standard IPO route. He believes the company will eventually go public through a reverse merger with Tesla, Musk's electric vehicle giant.
"I don't think SpaceX will IPO, I think it will reverse merge into Tesla and I think Elon will use it as a moment to consolidate control and power of his two seminal assets into one cap table," Palihapitiya declared on the show. This method allows a private firm to become publicly traded by combining with a company that is already listed, offering a faster alternative to the lengthy and expensive traditional IPO process.
Context and Credibility of the Forecast
It is important to note that while Palihapitiya made this striking prediction, Elon Musk himself has not commented on the possibility of such a merger in recent times. The clarity on whether Palihapitiya has insider information or is merely speculating remains uncertain. His co-hosts, Calacanis and Sacks, however, share a long-standing association with Musk dating back to the PayPal era and were involved in his acquisition of Twitter, now known as X.
This is not the first time Palihapitiya has made a public forecast about SpaceX's future. He previously predicted that Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet venture, would go public in 2023, a projection that ultimately did not materialize.
The Ongoing Speculation Around a SpaceX Listing
The discussion around a potential SpaceX IPO continues to be a major topic in financial circles. In December of last year, Elon Musk appeared to confirm reports of a planned IPO in 2026, stating in a post on X that such reports were "accurate." This added significant fuel to the speculation fire.
Further reports from Bloomberg suggest that SpaceX is actively working on IPO plans that could aim to raise well over $30 billion. If successful, this would rank as the largest public listing in history. The company's management and advisors are reportedly targeting a timeline between mid and late 2026 for the listing, though market conditions and other factors could potentially push this date to 2027.
Palihapitiya's reverse merger theory presents a fascinating counter-narrative to the prevailing IPO expectations. It suggests a strategic consolidation of Musk's most transformative companies, Tesla and SpaceX, under a single public umbrella. Whether this bold prediction comes to pass or the company follows the anticipated IPO path in 2026, the future structure of Elon Musk's business empire remains a subject of intense global interest and speculation.
