Silver has delivered a stunning performance over the past year, and the rally shows no signs of stopping. Prices are climbing higher, fueled by powerful industrial demand and a tight supply situation.
Record Prices and Bullish Targets
In the domestic spot market, silver prices have skyrocketed by more than ₹32,000. That represents a gain of over 14%. On Friday, January 16, March futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) reached a fresh all-time high of ₹2,92,865 per kilogram.
Market experts are now eyeing much higher levels. They believe silver rates could eventually hit the ₹4 lakh per kilogram mark.
Technical and Fundamental Drivers
Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives & Research at SAMCO Securities, provided a technical outlook. "The 2.618 Fibonacci extension aligns near ₹2,96,737. This becomes the first major medium-term target. Beyond this, the 3.618 Fibonacci extension points towards the ₹3,56,871 level. An extended move in a strong momentum environment could even open up levels closer to ₹3,94,034 over time," Sheth explained.
The fundamental picture is equally strong. Robust industrial demand exists alongside tight supply. There are also significant inflows into silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The gold-silver ratio is narrowing. All these factors indicate the metal is enjoying solid bullish momentum. While short-term pullbacks are possible, the medium to long-term outlook remains positive.
India's Structural Demand for Silver
Rajkumar Subramanian, Head of Products and Family Offices at PL Wealth Management, highlighted India's changing demand dynamics. "In India, silver is moving beyond its traditional role as a store of value. It is now increasingly driven by structural demand from key sectors," he said.
These sectors include solar energy, electronics, electric mobility, and advanced manufacturing. As India accelerates its renewable energy and infrastructure ambitions, silver's industrial relevance grows. This further supports its long-term price outlook.
Subramanian also noted rising retail participation. There is growing interest from high-net-worth individuals (HNIs) and family capital. This is positioning silver as a portfolio diversifier alongside gold.
However, he offered a word of caution. "Investors must remain mindful that silver is inherently more volatile than gold. It experiences sharper price swings driven by global growth expectations, dollar movements, and speculative flows. It is best approached with disciplined allocation and a medium- to long-term perspective," Subramanian advised.
Is Now the Right Time to Buy Silver?
Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered analyst, shared his forecast. He expects silver to test $100, which is approximately ₹3,00,000, by the end of the financial year 2025-26.
His advice for investors is to wait for a correction. "The current prices are not the ideal levels to buy silver, as the risk-reward ratio is not favorable. Buy on dips around $60-$65 or ₹2,50,000 and ₹2,60,000. These are good support levels," Gupta suggested.
Long-Term Supply Deficit and National Interest
Vandana Bharti, Head of Commodities Research at SMC Global Securities, emphasized the strong fundamentals. She said a supply deficit amidst record demand may persist into 2026.
Bharti made a crucial point about silver's strategic importance. "Silver isn't just an investment avenue. It's a critical mineral and a metal of national interest. Major countries are aggressively accumulating it to secure their supply chains," she stated.
Given the record physical demand and ETF buying, Bharti expects prices to stay within a range. "Prices are likely to stay within the $80-$115 range. Consider buying during corrections near ₹2,35,000 to ₹2,50,000, as sharp declines are unlikely. We are projecting a potential high of ₹3.5 lakh in 2026," she concluded.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
