Nifty 50 to Stay Steady While Broader Indices Face Major Reshuffle
India's equity markets are poised for a significant structural shift, even as the headline Nifty 50 index remains unchanged. The upcoming semi-annual index review in March 2026 is expected to deliver no alterations to the Nifty 50. According to analysis from Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research, none of the current stocks meet the strict market-capitalization and liquidity criteria needed to replace existing constituents.
This review will use average market cap and liquidity data from the six months ending January 31, 2026. The official announcement is likely in the second half of February, with any changes taking effect by the end of March.
Surface Stability Masks Underlying Transformation
While the Nifty 50 appears stable, a far more dynamic transformation is unfolding beneath the surface. Nuvama predicts pronounced churn across broader indices, driven primarily by recent large-scale initial public offerings and the accelerating entry of new-age, platform-led companies into India's public markets.
The rebalancing effective March 30 could mark a turning point where freshly listed firms and digital-first businesses begin to exert meaningful influence across mid- and small-cap indices. This shift will subtly but decisively alter the market's structural composition.
Big Reshuffles in Broader Indices
Leading this transition are Tata Capital Ltd and ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Nuvama expects both companies to enter the Nifty Next 50 and, consequently, the broader Nifty 100 basket.
Tata Capital has seen its market capitalization climb more than 9% since October 2025, reaching approximately ₹1.52 trillion. This growth is supported by steady post-listing performance and positive market sentiment. According to Bloomberg data, seven brokerages currently maintain buy ratings on the stock with no sell calls, reflecting confidence in the lender's growth outlook and balance-sheet strength.
ICICI Prudential AMC has delivered an even stronger performance. Since its December listing, the stock has rallied over 19%, taking its market capitalization to around ₹1.45 trillion. Analysts attribute these gains to strong investor demand, improving assets under management, and healthy earnings visibility. All four brokerages tracking the stock currently have buy ratings with no sell calls.
These movements highlight how asset managers and non-bank financial firms are steadily carving out space within benchmark indices traditionally dominated by banks and industrial heavyweights.
Within the Nifty Next 50, Nuvama expects potential inclusions to include Tata Capital, ICICI Prudential AMC, and Muthoot Finance Ltd, along with either HDFC Asset Management Co. or Cummins India Ltd, depending on movements at the Nifty 50 level.
Index Exits Make Way for New Entrants
For every new entrant, an established name must make way. Several stocks face potential exclusion from indices:
- Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd has seen its market capitalization decline more than 19% over the past year to about ₹76,999 crore. Market views on the stock remain divided, with four brokerages maintaining buy ratings and five recommending a sell.
- Havells India Ltd has experienced market value falling over 10% to ₹89,378 crore following a weak Q2FY26 performance. Softer summer-product demand and delayed consumer spending after the GST transition have weighed on earnings expectations.
Other stocks likely to exit the Nifty Next 50 include ICICI Lombard General Insurance Co, Naukri Ltd, and either JSW Energy Ltd or REC Ltd, subject to final parent-index adjustments.
Mid-Cap Churn Reflects Digital Transformation
The churn becomes more visible as one moves down the market-capitalization ladder. In the Nifty Midcap 150, Nuvama expects the entry of companies that reflect the rising influence of consumer-tech, fintech, and digital platforms within India's equity markets:
- LG Electronics India Ltd shares have risen more than 20% since October, supported by overwhelmingly positive market sentiment. Seventeen of nineteen brokerages covering the stock maintain buy ratings.
- BillionBrains Garage Ventures Ltd (parent of Groww) has seen an even sharper rally, with shares surging over 63% in the same period, lifting market capitalization from ₹80,837 crore to roughly ₹1.1 trillion.
- Meesho Ltd stock has climbed more than 44%.
- Lenskart Solutions Ltd has gained about 8%.
Correspondingly, several established names are expected to exit the Midcap 150 to make room for the new cohort. HDFC AMC, Muthoot Finance, Exide Industries Ltd, LIC Housing Finance Ltd, and Sona BLW Precision Forgings Ltd are among the stocks likely to move out as the index absorbs recently listed heavyweights.
Small-Caps Experience Deepest Reshuffle
The transformation is most pronounced in the Nifty Smallcap 250, where the list of potential inclusions reads like a snapshot of India's evolving entrepreneurial economy. Nuvama flags PhysicsWallah Ltd, Piramal Finance Ltd, Exide Industries, Honeywell Automation India Ltd, and Ajanta Pharma Ltd as likely entrants.
At the same time, a cluster of established names—including Laurus Labs Ltd, Authum Investment & Infrastructure Ltd, Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd, Kaynes Technology Ltd, and Radico Khaitan Ltd—are expected to drop out, reinforcing the sense of churn at the lower end of the market.
"This reflects a clear wave of new-age companies entering the mid- and small-cap universe," said Abhilash Pagaria, head of Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research. He described the upcoming rejig as muted for the Nifty 50 but highlighted "meaningful churn" across broader indices as heavyweight IPOs integrate.
Nuvama cautions that its projections remain sensitive to two key risks: any revisions to NSE index methodology and sharp fluctuations in free-float factors, both of which could alter the final composition.
