As we step into 2026, the world of finance, technology, and geopolitics stands at several fascinating crossroads. Looking back at a tumultuous 2025 marked by AI mania, geopolitical conflicts, and significant retirements, what does the new year hold? Andy Serwer of Barron's offers a set of highly personal and opinionated forecasts for the coming twelve months, challenging conventional wisdom on several fronts.
The Central Bank and Geopolitical Landscape
One of the most watched decisions will be the appointment of the next Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026. Contrary to speculation around candidates like Kevin Hassett or Kevin Warsh, Serwer predicts President Donald Trump will opt for a wild card. The likely picks, according to this forecast, are Scott Bessent or current Fed Governor Chris Waller, a suggestion credited to Yale's Jeff Sonenfeld.
On the global stage, Serwer anticipates a continued geopolitical stasis. He describes the current era as one dominated by "Three Strong Men": China's Xi Jinping, Russia's Vladimir Putin, and the USA's Donald Trump. He sees no major political shifts—through elections, coups, or other means—altering this dynamic in 2026, meaning the current state of "inactive equilibrium" in world affairs is set to persist.
Technology and Social Media: A Reality Check
A significant and under-recognised trend for 2026 is the potential erosion of social media's appeal by artificial intelligence. The core allure of platforms like Instagram and TikTok was the discovery of amazing, real-life moments. Now, the pervasive rise of AI-generated content—from deepfakes of historical figures to fabricated images of celebrities—is blurring the lines between reality and fiction.
Serwer argues that the constant mental effort to discern real from fake will become tiresome for users, leading them to gradually disengage. This search for authenticity, he notes, is part of why live sports, as an unscripted and real event, will see its business value skyrocket further.
Financial Markets and Monumental Milestones
In the investment world, Serwer makes several contrarian calls. He believes the high-flying AI trade is running out of steam. While giants like Nvidia have seen astronomical gains over the past decade (up 30,442%), their momentum has slowed relative to the broader S&P 500 in recent months. With a market cap nearing $4.57 trillion, the path for such explosive growth becomes much harder.
However, one growth story is far from over: Elon Musk's wealth. Serwer, citing colleague Al Root, predicts Musk will become the world's first trillionaire in 2026. This milestone will be driven primarily by the soaring valuation of his aerospace company, SpaceX. A successful IPO for SpaceX could achieve this even if Tesla's valuation remains flat.
Furthermore, institutional money will continue to flood into sports, driving franchise valuations higher. According to a report from Apollo, sports team valuations have compounded at roughly 13% annually over six decades, outperforming the 10.5% return of plain-vanilla equities.
Finally, breaking from the bullish consensus on Wall Street, Serwer ventures a prediction for the stock market: a downturn. He forecasts the S&P 500 to fall by about 10%, settling near 6260.85. He cites factors like political interference in the healthcare industry and brewing labor shortages as potential growth hindrances. This stands in stark contrast to a reported Bloomberg headline stating every Wall Street analyst predicts a rally for a fourth straight year.
As with all predictions, only time will tell their accuracy. Serwer invites readers to revisit these forecasts in a year's time, ready to be held accountable for his bold—and often against-the-grain—vision for 2026.
