All eyes are on the Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA) as the public sector company is set to announce its financial results for the December quarter (Q3FY26) on Friday, January 9. The earnings declaration comes at a critical time for the stock, which has witnessed significant volatility and a sharp decline over the past year.
Market Performance and Technical Outlook
On Thursday, January 8, shares of IREDA closed 3.3% lower at ₹141.18 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). The stock has been under pressure recently due to profit booking, falling nearly 4% on a weekly basis. This decline is poised to end its two-week gaining streak.
The broader picture for 2025 has been challenging. IREDA's stock has plunged 35% this year, starkly underperforming the benchmark Nifty 50, which has risen 10.5% in the same period. However, technical analysts are now spotting signs of a potential turnaround.
Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Technical Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, notes that the stock is flashing positive signals on the charts. He highlighted that IREDA has formed a well-defined double bottom pattern, a classic technical indicator that often precedes a trend reversal.
"The setup is further strengthened by the presence of a bullish divergence, which suggests that the underlying momentum is improving even as the price showed weakness," Patel explained. He added that the stock has closed above its 10-day exponential moving average (10-DEMA), indicating short-term strength.
Other momentum indicators also support a positive bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has broken out of a trendline, pointing to renewed buying interest. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has generated a bullish crossover. The stock's price action, closing above a previous swing high, confirms this improving strength.
Based on this analysis, Patel suggests, "Traders could look to buy the stock on dips in the ₹145-142 range. The potential upside target is seen around ₹160. To manage risk, a strict stop loss should be placed at ₹134 on a daily closing basis."
Analyst Expectations for Q3FY26 Results
Fundamental analysts are largely optimistic about the company's operational performance for the quarter ended December 2025. The expectations are buoyed by India's aggressive push towards renewable energy.
Seema Srivastava, Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities, anticipates positive results, driven by strong loan growth and stable earnings. She expects loan disbursements to register double-digit growth, while loan sanctions are likely to see a modest increase. This reflects sustained demand for financing projects in solar, wind, and other clean energy segments.
"We also foresee an improvement in net interest margins (NIMs) and asset quality during the quarter," Srivastava stated. Key metrics to watch will include net interest income (NII), profit after tax (PAT), asset quality indicators, non-performing asset (NPA) ratios, and capital adequacy. Previous quarters have shown healthy profitability and steady net worth expansion, supported by robust growth in interest income.
Strong Fundamentals Amid Market Volatility
Khushi Mistry, a research analyst at Bonanza, emphasized that IREDA's core fundamentals remain strong, powered by robust loan book growth and favorable tailwinds from the renewable energy sector. The stock's underperformance is attributed more to broader market volatility than company-specific weaknesses.
"Q3FY26 earnings are expected to reflect continued operational strength," Mistry said, citing provisional updates that show a 29% year-on-year growth in loan sanctions and a 28% expansion in the loan book.
However, Mistry also cautioned investors about potential risks. "The company's high leverage makes it susceptible to interest rate hikes and shifts in government policy. There is also a risk that NPAs could rise if the renewable energy sector encounters execution delays," she added.
The dual narrative of technical recovery signals and solid fundamental expectations sets the stage for a highly watched earnings announcement from IREDA. Investors and traders will be scrutinizing the results to gauge whether the stock can capitalize on the positive technical structure and reverse its prolonged downtrend.
