Indian Stock Market Trades in Tight Range Amid Cautious Investor Sentiment
The Indian stock market exhibited a narrow trading range on Thursday, reflecting a distinct wait-and-watch approach among market participants. In the absence of significant domestic catalysts, benchmark indices struggled to maintain upward momentum, highlighting a cautious environment where selective, stock-specific activity dominated the session.
Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior
Overall market sentiment remained stable yet subdued, with a noticeable lack of follow-through buying pressure despite earlier positive cues. Trading was characterized by modest interest in export-oriented and select cyclical stocks, which was effectively counterbalanced by profit-taking in recent outperformers. This dynamic contributed to the restrained performance of the major indices.
The Indian National Rupee (INR) traded within a defined range against the US Dollar (USD), indicating balanced demand-supply dynamics amidst steady global cues. Market participants are largely remaining on the sidelines, anticipating clearer signals from several key developments. These include global macroeconomic trends, the direction of foreign institutional investor (FII) flows, and further progress in the crucial US-Iran negotiations, which are poised to influence the market's next decisive move.
Global Geopolitical Developments: US-Iran Talks Resume
Diplomatic efforts between Iran and the United States are set to recommence on Friday in Oman. These nuclear negotiations return to the forefront after being derailed by Israel's 12-day conflict with Iran in June and the subsequent wave of nationwide protests in Iran, which led to a severe government crackdown.
The resumption of talks occurs as US President Donald Trump escalates pressure on the Islamic Republic. He has issued warnings regarding potential US military action if Iran proceeds with mass executions linked to the protests. This move effectively reintroduces Iran's nuclear program as a central foreign policy issue following months of regional tension.
Commodity Markets: Gold and Silver Under Pressure
Gold and silver prices faced significant selling pressure as the US Dollar strengthened against major global currencies. The easing of immediate US-Iran tensions reduced the demand for these traditional safe-haven assets, leading to a noticeable dip in their rates.
Providing an expert outlook, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market analyst, stated, "The COMEX gold is trading in a broader range of $4,450/oz to $5,200/oz, whereas the MCX gold rate today is in the ₹1,35,000 to ₹1,60,000 per 10 gm range. Likewise, the COMEX silver is in a broader range of $70/oz to $95/oz, while the MCX silver rate today is in a broader range of ₹2,25,000 per kg to ₹2,60,000 per kg. A bullish or a bearish trend can be assumed on the breakage of either side of this range."
Currency Market: Rupee Holds Ground
Commenting on the currency outlook, Jateen Trivedi, VP Research — Commodity & Currency at LKP Securities, noted, "The Indian Rupee traded stronger near 90.30, gaining around 0.20 paise or 0.22%, supported by dollar weakness and softer commodity prices. The improved global sentiment, as India-US trade deals have helped the domestic currency stay firm. All eyes are now on the RBI policy due tomorrow, as participants will closely watch liquidity measures and the policy stance. Any commentary on inflation outlook, growth projections, or liquidity tightening/easing could set the next directional move for the Indian Rupee in the near term."
Institutional Investment Activity
After two consecutive sessions of net buying, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) reverted to being net sellers on Thursday, offloading Indian equities worth ₹2,151 crore. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued their supportive role, remaining net buyers by purchasing shares worth ₹1,130 crore during the day's trading.
Equity Market Technical Outlook
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, shared his perspective on the Nifty 50 and Sensex: "We are of the view that the intraday market texture is weak, but a fresh selloff is possible only if 25,600/83,200 is dismissed below. The market could then slip to 25,500-25,350/83,000-82,500. On the flip side, 25,800/83,800 would act as an immediate resistance zone. Above this, it could move up to 25,900-25,925/84,000-84,200."
Regarding the Bank Nifty, Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money, observed, "The Bank Nifty index continued to trade below the rising trend line and the intraday VWAP zone around 60,150–60,180, signalling a weak short-term structure and lack of bullish follow-through. Although prices dipped into the 59,950–59,900 demand area and witnessed a minor rebound, the move lacked volume and momentum expansion, suggesting short-covering rather than fresh long positioning. Structurally, the near-term bias remains corrective to bearish, with lower highs below key supply zones. A sustained acceptance above 60,150–60,200 is required to revive upside momentum, while a decisive close below 59,900 could open the door to further downside toward deeper demand levels."
Expert Stock Recommendations for Intraday Trading
Market experts Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, and Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Anand Rathi, have recommended five stocks for intraday consideration: GESHIP, IOC, PNB, Poly Medicure, and UPL.
Sumeet Bagadia's Stock Picks
- GESHIP: Buy at ₹1268, Target ₹1352, Stop Loss ₹1224. The stock recently hit a 52-week high of ₹1285.40 after breaking out from consolidation, indicating a potential long-term uptrend with strong volume support.
- IOC: Buy at ₹176, Target ₹188, Stop Loss ₹170. The stock shows a strong upward trajectory with higher highs and lows, confirmed by a Rounding Bottom breakout and a fresh 52-week high of ₹178.
Ganesh Dongre's Stock Selections
- PNB: Buy at ₹124, Target ₹132, Stop Loss ₹118. Exhibiting a strong bullish pattern with solid support at ₹118, suggesting a potential retracement towards ₹132.
- Poly Medicure: Buy at ₹1500, Target ₹1575, Stop Loss ₹1470. Shows a continuous bullish pattern with strong support at ₹1470, indicating a possible move to ₹1575.
- UPL: Buy at ₹750, Target ₹780, Stop Loss ₹730. Displays a notable bullish pattern with firm support at ₹730, pointing towards a retracement target of ₹780.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms and not of Mint. Investors are strongly advised to consult with certified financial experts before making any investment decisions.
