Indian Stock Market Shows Cautious Trading Amid Global Uncertainties
The Indian stock market moved within a tight range on Monday. Investors adopted a defensive stance throughout the trading session. Global tariff-related worries and geopolitical tensions kept market participants on edge.
Fresh threats of tariffs from the United States on select European nations triggered a risk-off mood worldwide. This global sentiment negatively impacted domestic market confidence. Persistent selling activity by foreign portfolio investors added to the downward pressure. Continued weakness in the Indian rupee against the US dollar further weighed on equity markets.
Technical Outlook for Key Indices
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, shared his perspective on the Nifty 50 and Sensex. He stated that the current market structure appears weak. However, a fresh selloff might only occur if the Nifty breaks below 25,500 and the Sensex falls under 82,900. If these levels are breached, the market could slide to 25,400-25,350 for the Nifty and 82,600-82,500 for the Sensex.
On the positive side, Chouhan noted that a move above 25,650 for the Nifty and 83,500 for the Sensex could trigger a pullback rally. This rally might extend towards 25,750-25,800 for the Nifty and 83,800-84,000 for the Sensex. He described the intraday market as volatile and lacking clear direction. For day traders, he recommended a strategy focused on specific price levels.
Vatsal Bhuva, a Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, commented on the Bank Nifty index. He observed that the index found strong support near its 20-day Simple Moving Average on Monday. Buying interest emerged at these lower levels, indicating demand. The index is currently consolidating with a bullish bias, as it holds above this key short-term average.
Bhuva pointed out that the Relative Strength Index has entered a bullish crossover, supporting the positive outlook. He believes fresh upward momentum will likely return only if the Bank Nifty closes above the 60,000 mark. It must sustain above this level for the next two to three sessions. For the near term, he identified support at 59,500 and resistance at 60,400, defining the expected trading range.
Precious Metals Shine in Early Trade
Silver prices climbed to a new peak in early Asian market trading. The COMEX silver rate reached $94.740 per ounce. At 6:30 AM, the price was quoting at $93.750 per ounce, marking a gain of approximately 5.90% from Monday's close.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, provided an outlook for MCX silver rates. He stated that the MCX silver rate has decisively broken above the ₹3,05,000 per kilogram level. The white metal is now positioned to test ₹3,15,000 per kg. On the downside, he noted that dips below ₹2,90,000 could test ₹2,85,000, where strong buying interest is expected to emerge.
Gold prices also opened higher in early Asian trade. The COMEX gold price opened with an upside gap and extended its early morning gains. At 6:30 AM, it was trading at $4,673.75 per ounce, up around 1.70% from its previous close.
Ponmudi R also commented on MCX gold. He said MCX Gold is holding firm near recent highs around ₹1,44,500 to ₹1,45,000 per kg. The price structure maintains a clean pattern of higher highs and higher lows within a rising channel. The recent peak near ₹1,45,500 highlights strong domestic participation, backed by global strength and a stable USD/INR exchange rate near 90.70.
He identified the 20-day Exponential Moving Average around ₹1,40,400 as a reliable dynamic support level. Dips towards this level are consistently being bought. A decisive move above ₹1,45,000 could trigger further upside towards ₹1,46,000 to ₹1,50,000 in the near term. Immediate support is placed in the ₹1,43,000 to ₹1,42,000 zone. The broader trend remains firmly bullish, favoring a buy-on-dips approach.
Rupee Faces Pressure Against the Dollar
Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst for Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, discussed the Indian rupee's outlook against the US dollar. The rupee slipped further to 90.91, down 14 paise. Early panic in equities followed fresh US tariff moves on the European Union. This revived concerns over potential delays in the India-US trade deal.
Rising geopolitical uncertainty, including renewed expansionary signals from the US, has increased risk aversion. This pressure keeps emerging market currencies, including the rupee, under strain. Trivedi noted that the rupee has immediate support near 90.45, while resistance is seen around 91.25.
Expert Stock Recommendations for Intraday Trading
Stock market experts recommended eight stocks for intraday trading today. The experts include Sumeet Bagadia of Choice Broking, Ganesh Dongre of Anand Rathi, and Shiju Koothupalakkal of Prabhudas Lilladher.
Sumeet Bagadia's stock picks:
- Federal Bank: Buy at ₹279.70, target ₹300, stop loss ₹270. The stock maintains a strong upward trajectory, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. It recently reached an all-time high of ₹280.25. A breakout above this level could accelerate buying interest.
- Torrent Pharma: Buy at ₹4087, target ₹4371, stop loss ₹3945. The stock is in a strong bullish trend, showing a sharp upward move after prolonged consolidation. It trades comfortably above all key moving averages, which are trending upward, indicating a stable trend. Consistent bullish candles suggest continued strength.
Ganesh Dongre's stock picks:
- L&T Finance: Buy at ₹299, target ₹312, stop loss ₹292. A notable bullish reversal pattern has emerged in the short-term trend, suggesting a possible retracement to around ₹312. The stock maintains crucial support at ₹292.
- Infosys: Buy at ₹1680, target ₹1720, stop loss ₹1650. The stock exhibits a strong and continuous bullish pattern, offering a promising opportunity for short-term traders.
- SAIL: Buy at ₹150, target ₹162, stop loss ₹145. The stock shows a strong and notable continuous bullish pattern, presenting another opportunity for short-term traders.
Shiju Koothupalakkal's intraday stocks:
- Hero Motocorp: Buy at ₹5762, target ₹5950, stop loss ₹5670. After a brief correction, the stock found support near ₹5,600, indicating a revival with volume participation. This improves the bias for a further upward move.
- Bajaj Finance: Buy at ₹969.45, target ₹1030, stop loss ₹950. After a decent correction, the stock stabilized and took support near the base of its ascending channel pattern at ₹940. A positive candle formation moving past the important 200-period MA at ₹956 has improved the bias for upward movement.
- PB Fintech: Buy at ₹1681, target ₹1770, stop loss ₹1645. The stock witnessed a steep correction from ₹1960 and has currently taken support near ₹1620. A positive bullish candle formation with significant volume participation is expected to improve the bias for an upward move.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies. We advise investors to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.
