Geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East is poised to send shockwaves through the commodity markets, with experts predicting a significant gap-up opening for gold prices on Monday, 12 January 2026. The trigger is the escalating tension surrounding the anti-government protests in Iran and the looming threat of intervention by US President Donald Trump.
Protests and Geopolitical Risk Fuel Safe-Haven Rush
The crisis in Iran, which began on 28 December 2025 due to a collapsing currency and a severe economic crisis, has intensified. Citizens filled the streets of Tehran on Sunday, 11 January 2026, marking the second day of renewed demonstrations following a major escalation on Saturday night. The government, led by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has responded with a crackdown and an internet shutdown. With the protests entering their third week, the situation remains volatile, compounded by reports of military deployments on the Iran border.
This environment of uncertainty is a classic catalyst for safe-haven assets. Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered commodity expert, stated that gold prices are expected to rise on both domestic and international markets. "The yellow metal may open upside and touch $4,550 per ounce, whereas the MCX gold rates may touch ₹142,000 per 10 grams due to the escalation in the US-Iran conflict," Gupta explained. He added that the conflict has the potential to "speed up" the rally in precious metals like gold and silver in the near term.
Technical Outlook: Key Levels for MCX and COMEX Gold
On the technical front, market analysts have identified crucial price levels. Ponmudi R, CEO of SEBI-registered Enrich Money, provided a detailed analysis for the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX). He noted that MCX Gold is consolidating near ₹138,819 per 10 grams after posting lifetime highs. The key support is placed between ₹135,000 and ₹137,000 per 10 grams, while immediate resistance lies at ₹140,000 to ₹142,000.
"If gold prices break above the resistance level, then the precious yellow metal can rise towards ₹145,000 per 10 grams," Ponmudi R emphasised. This positive outlook is driven by firm global prices, a supportive rupee trend, and steady investment flows. The broader strategy, he suggests, continues to favour "buy-on-dips," supported by persistent safe-haven demand and central bank accumulation.
For international benchmarks, the analysis on COMEX gold points to a key support zone near $4,400 per ounce. A decisive break above the $4,600 per ounce mark could potentially open the path for a rally towards $4,800–$5,000 levels. Last week, gold futures on COMEX were consolidating around the $4,500–$4,517 range, testing recent highs while forming higher lows on pullbacks—a technical sign of strong underlying demand.
Market Context and Immediate Impact
The market has already begun pricing in the risk. Data from the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) shows that gold prices for the February 2026 contract closed at ₹138,875 per 10 grams on Friday, a marginal gain of 0.04% from the previous close of ₹138,819. This sets the stage for a more dramatic move when trading resumes.
The confluence of prolonged civil unrest in Iran, the spectre of US involvement, and the existing economic fragility of the region creates a perfect storm for commodity traders. Investors are likely to flock to gold as a traditional store of value during times of geopolitical strife, validating expert predictions for a sharp upward move at the opening bell.
