Gold prices in India have extended their impressive bull run into the year 2026, climbing significantly as investors seek safety amid a turbulent global landscape. The precious metal on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) has risen from ₹1,35,447 to ₹1,38,875 per 10 grams, delivering a robust return of approximately 2.50% for investors this year. Market analysts attribute this sustained upward trend to a potent mix of escalating geopolitical conflicts and growing anxieties about a potential economic downturn in the United States.
Why Gold Prices Are Climbing: A Perfect Storm of Fear
According to commodity market experts, the current bullish trajectory for gold is firmly rooted in international instability. The recent US military actions against Venezuela have sharply increased geopolitical tensions. Furthermore, the United States entered 2026 with an unemployment rate of 4.4%, a figure that has sparked widespread speculation about a looming recession. This combination is creating a highly conducive environment for strong safe-haven demand for gold in the short term.
Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered commodity expert, elaborated on the reasons behind the bull trend. He stated that rising geopolitical tension and renewed fear of a US recession are the primary catalysts. "The US has entered 2026 with an unemployment rate of 4.4%, after the lowest monthly pace of job gains outside a recession since 2003. This signifies that Trump's tariffs are eroding the US economy's strength and triggering a US recession," Gupta explained.
He further highlighted that the absence of a concrete peace deal in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, coupled with the US-Venezuela conflict, has worsened the global security situation. Gupta also pointed out a concerning domino effect, suggesting that China might consider invading Taiwan, taking a cue from the US actions in Venezuela, which would signal a major realignment of global powers.
Key Triggers to Watch: The US Supreme Court and Price Levels
Experts are advising investors to keep a close watch on two critical factors: a major judicial decision and key technical price levels. The US Supreme Court's impending ruling on former President Donald Trump's tariffs is expected to be a significant market mover. The court is scheduled to issue its next round of rulings on January 14, 2026.
Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at Pace 360, advised vigilance, noting, "There is speculation in the market that the US Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs may go against Donald Trump, and uncertainties such as a trade war and tariff hikes may be alleviated." The outcome could either reduce market volatility or exacerbate it, directly impacting gold's appeal.
On the technical front, analysts have identified crucial price zones. Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money, noted that the MCX gold rate is currently consolidating after hitting lifetime highs. Strong support is placed between ₹1,35,000 and ₹1,37,000 per 10 grams, while immediate resistance lies in the ₹1,40,000 to ₹1,42,000 band. A decisive breakout above this resistance zone could accelerate prices toward ₹1,45,000 and higher.
Is Now the Right Time to Invest in Gold?
The overall sentiment among experts remains positive for gold. Ponmudi R emphasized that the structure is supported by firm global prices, a supportive rupee trend, and steady investment flows. On the international front, COMEX Gold futures are consolidating around the $4,500–$4,517 per ounce range. Key support lies near $4,400, and a sustained hold above this maintains the bullish bias. A decisive breakout above $4,600 could open the path toward $4,800–$5,000.
The broader strategy continues to favor 'buy-on-dips', supported by persistent safe-haven demand and ongoing accumulation by central banks worldwide. For Indian investors, the advice is to monitor the ₹1,40,000 resistance level closely and stay informed about the US Supreme Court's tariff decision next Wednesday, as these will be pivotal for gold's near-term direction.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
