The year 2025 witnessed a spectacular bull run in the commodities market, with precious metals like gold and silver capturing headlines. However, the industrial metal copper also posted a robust performance, setting the stage for what analysts believe could be an even more explosive year in 2026.
The 2025 Metals Boom: A Recap
In the domestic market, spot gold prices skyrocketed by ₹56,727 per 10 grams, marking an impressive gain of 75% over the course of 2025. Silver outperformed even this, surging by a staggering ₹1,43,601 per kilogram, a rise of 167%. While copper's 50% gain last year paled in comparison, it was nonetheless a solid performance that has ignited speculation about its future potential.
Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, noted that copper experienced its longest winning streak since 2017, rallying through December. Comex Futures surged over 40% in 2025, recording their largest annual jump since 2009. A key factor supporting prices was a weaker US dollar, which depreciated by about 8% in 2025, making dollar-denominated metals cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Why Copper Could Be the Star of 2026
Experts point to a confluence of factors that could propel copper to deliver returns reminiscent of gold and silver's 2025 rally. The metal faced volatility last year due to demand-supply imbalances, tariff issues, and geopolitical tensions. However, the outlook for 2026 is underpinned by a structurally tight supply against a backdrop of rising demand.
Bhavik Joshi, Business Head of INVasset PMS, explained the fundamental difference: gold and silver are monetary metals, reacting to financial stress and currency movements. Copper, however, is an industrial metal. Its fortune is tied to physical demand, capital expenditure cycles, and supply constraints.
"Demand is increasingly anchored in electrification, energy transition investments, EV adoption, power-grid expansion, and AI-led data-centre infrastructure," Joshi stated. He emphasized that grid upgrades and transmission projects are copper-intensive and less dependent on the cyclical housing market, suggesting copper demand may gradually decouple from property cycles.
The Critical Supply Challenge
The bullish case for copper rests heavily on supply-side limitations. Joshi highlighted that years of under-investment, ore-grade deterioration, ageing mines, and ESG-related delays have made copper supply structurally inelastic. This means even a modest acceleration in demand can trigger disproportionately large price increases.
Trivedi echoed this sentiment, describing a "perfect storm" continuing into the fourth quarter, fueled by an optimistic macro outlook and persistent supply risks. Disruptions in key producing regions further compound the issue.
Tushar Badjate, director of Badjate PMS, added that while copper is recyclable, effective supply growth continues to lag behind structural demand, keeping the long-term outlook positive.
Investment Outlook and Risks
Can copper match the 2025 returns of gold and silver in 2026? Joshi believes it is possible but not guaranteed. "It requires synchronised global capex, sustained energy-transition spending, and no major growth shock," he cautioned. He described copper as a growth-linked opportunity with higher upside potential but also meaningfully higher drawdown risk, unlike the monetary hedge provided by gold and silver.
A recovery in global manufacturing PMIs and increased capital expenditure would significantly strengthen copper's demand profile, partially offsetting ongoing weakness in the property sector.
Badjate concluded with strategic advice for investors: "The real edge lies in understanding where each metal fits within the cycle. Gold and silver protect wealth during uncertainty, while copper compounds value through economic expansion. A well-structured metals allocation builds resilience, balance, and long-term returns."
For investors who missed the precious metals rally of 2025, copper presents a structurally compelling, though conditional, opportunity for 2026, driven by the global green energy transition and a constrained supply pipeline.
