India is witnessing an uneven trend in criminal activity, with overall crime declining due to increased public investment, digitization, and enhanced surveillance, while cybercrime has risen, potentially crossing 1 lakh cases, according to a report by the State Bank of India (SBI).
Key Findings on Crime Rates
India recorded 58.86 lakh cognizable crimes in 2024, down by 6.0% from the previous year. The all-India crime rate fell from 448.3 to 418.9 per lakh population. Notably, crime against women dropped by 1.5%, from 4.48 lakh cases in 2023 to 4.41 lakh cases in 2024, the report said.
Role of Digitization and Surveillance
Digitization increases detection chances through tools such as UPI, FASTag, and digital surveillance, raising the expected cost of committing crime. Areas with more CCTV cameras saw a slight drop in crime between 2022 and 2024, with a correlation of -0.148.
Under the Smart Cities Mission, all 100 Smart Cities have operational Integrated Command and Control Centres to integrate data, technology, surveillance, and real-time monitoring for improved urban management. More than 84,000 CCTV surveillance cameras had been installed across the 100 Smart Cities, along with 1,884 emergency call boxes and 3,000 public address systems. These measures increase the perceived probability of detection, the report said.
Crime and Economic Growth Link
The report highlights an interesting relationship between crime and economic growth. Empirical literature suggests that crime can act as a drag on economic growth by raising uncertainty, increasing security and transaction costs, discouraging investment, and crowding out legal economic activity. A 1% decline in the IPC/BNS crime rate per lakh population is associated with about 0.11% higher real GDP growth in the short run. Hence, as crime declines, society gains a growth dividend.
Crime Against Women: A Persistent Challenge
Crime against women acts as a labour market friction and could lead to lower participation by females. The broader implication is that women's safety is not only a law-and-order issue but also a labour market policy variable. While crime against women has dropped, the decline remains a drop in the ocean given the scale of the challenge. NCRB 2024 recorded 1,20,227 cases and 1,21,166 victims under cruelty by husband or relatives. Based on NFHS-5 data, with an estimated 27.88 crore ever-married women in the relevant age group, and 24% reporting physical and/or sexual spousal violence in the past 12 months, the estimated annual burden rises to about 6.69 crore women, as per the SBI report.
