Gold prices experienced a significant pullback on Thursday, slipping below the psychologically important $5,000 mark as a stronger U.S. dollar and signs of easing geopolitical tensions dampened safe-haven demand. This retreat comes just days after the precious metal scaled a record peak of $5,594.82 per ounce, highlighting the extreme volatility that has characterized the market over the past week.
Sharp Decline in Gold and Silver Prices
COMEX gold futures shed 3.6% to settle at $4,805 per ounce, while spot gold declined 0.9% to $4,917.61 per ounce as of 0754 GMT. The spot price had retreated from a near one-week high touched earlier in the trading session, with prices falling nearly 4% at one point during the day. U.S. gold futures for April delivery were down 0.3% at $4,936.30 per ounce.
Silver mirrored this turbulence, with spot silver falling 9.3% to $79.88 an ounce after plunging as much as 15% earlier. This decline followed the metal's record high of $121.64 per ounce reached just last week, demonstrating the dramatic swings in precious metals markets.
Geopolitical Developments Drive Market Sentiment
The correction in precious metals coincided with a broader cooling in geopolitical risk sentiment. Iran and the United States agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday, while U.S. President Donald Trump described his recent discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping as "very positive." As tensions eased across multiple fronts, commodities from crude oil to copper declined sharply alongside gold and silver.
Notably, gold has now lost approximately $800 since reaching its all-time high of $5,594.82 on January 29, representing a substantial correction from recent peaks.
Volatility Following Record Rally and Federal Reserve Speculation
The past week has been one of the most volatile periods for gold in recent memory. Prices initially extended their record-breaking rally following news around Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve chair. However, market sentiment shifted dramatically after President Trump indicated he would not have nominated Warsh if the candidate had shown support for raising interest rates. Gold attempted a rebound over two trading sessions but failed to sustain those gains.
Brokerages Maintain Bullish Long-Term Outlook
Despite the violent price swings, major financial institutions believe the structural story for gold remains intact. JP Morgan emphasized in a research note: "Even with the recent near-term volatility, we remain firmly bullishly convicted in gold over the medium-term on the back of a clean, structural, continued diversification trend."
Gold Price Targets for 2026
JP Morgan now expects gold prices to reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026. The brokerage forecasts central bank gold purchases at 800 tons in 2026, citing an ongoing and still unexhausted reserve diversification trend according to a Reuters report.
Other global banks echoed similar optimism with varied targets:
- UBS raised its gold price target to $6,200 per ounce for March, June and September 2026, up from $5,000 earlier, citing stronger-than-expected investment demand. The bank projected a modest cooling to $5,900 per ounce by year-end 2026 after the U.S. midterm elections. UBS outlined a wide range of possibilities: an upside scenario of $7,200 per ounce if geopolitical tensions escalate, and a downside case of $4,600 if the Federal Reserve turns hawkish.
- Deutsche Bank reiterated its $6,000 per ounce forecast for 2026 earlier this week, pointing to sustained investor appetite for the metal despite the recent correction.
- Ventura offered the most conservative estimate among brokerages, placing its 2026 target at $5,645. NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodity & CRM at Ventura, noted: "Gold for the year 2026 is likely to cross the highs of the 'Futures' of $5645 made recently. Speed of the rally, unsustainable levels and the speculative trades gave a pull back rally for a major correction." He added that physical demand remains strong and structural fundamentals tied to diversification could help gold surpass recent highs despite current instability.
Extremely Bullish Outlook from Robert Kiyosaki
On a completely different tangent, Rich Dad Poor Dad author and investor Robert Kiyosaki reiterated his extremely bullish stance on social media platform X. "GOLD soars over $5,000. Yay!!!! Future for gold $27,000," Kiyosaki wrote without specifying a timeline. A move from $5,000 to $27,000 would imply more than a five-fold surge, marking one of the most aggressive long-term calls on the metal in recent years.
Market analysts emphasize that corrections are part of restoring balance when markets move too far, too fast. Although gold is currently trading in an unstable phase where confidence and risk management matter, many maintain long-term conviction in the metal's prospects. The near-term direction will likely depend on whether gold stabilizes or volatility continues to dominate trading patterns.
