Gold Price Prediction Today: Range-Bound Bullion Awaits Direction from US-Iran Developments
Gold prices have been trading in a tight range recently, with the trajectory heavily dependent on developments in the US-Iran conflict, according to Maneesh Sharma, AVP - Commodities & Currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. The precious metal gradually recovered after falling to $5,015 per ounce this week, though buying momentum slowed due to a firmer US dollar and diminishing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which offset safe-haven demand from the escalating Middle East war.
Impact of Middle East Conflict on Global Markets
The war with Iran has entered its second week, leading to significant disruptions. Oil prices surged above $115 per barrel for the first time since 2022, fueled by concerns over renewed global inflation. This spike intensified after oil tankers were effectively blocked from the Strait of Hormuz, prompting several Middle Eastern producers, including Kuwait, Iraq, and the UAE, to curb crude output. The surge in energy prices has complicated the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, reinforcing expectations that rate cuts may be delayed and increasing the risk of stagflation, particularly following last week’s weak jobs report.
Global bond markets posted one of their worst weekly losses in months, driven by fears that the Middle East conflict will renew upward pressure on inflation and force more hawkish pivots from central banks. Meanwhile, silver, which tumbled below $80 per ounce last week, recovered well to post solid gains as renewed weakness in the dollar persisted after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the conflict could soon end.
Gold and Silver Price Outlook
Weekly View for Spot Gold (CMP $5,171/Oz): A slight positive bias is expected, with supports at $5,030–5,015 per ounce levels. Gold is trading around $5,171 and has been stuck in a tight range beneath resistance at $5,275–5,280, still clinging to its rising trend line from late February. The 200-day EMA at $5,014 per ounce provides support, offering a constructive medium-term picture.
Upside Resistance: Gold faces resistance at around $5,360–5,370 per ounce on a weekly closing basis. A sustainable close above this level could open the door for further upside momentum up to $5,500–5,600 levels.
Spot Silver (CMP $88.30/Oz): Volatile to positive bias, with a higher-side target at 92–93 per ounce. As a less liquid market compared to gold, silver could remain volatile but maintains a constructive medium-term view.
Key Factors Influencing Prices
The trajectory of bullion prices will likely depend on the duration and intensity of the Middle East conflict, as global investors reassess risk exposure. Diplomatic developments over Iran will be closely scrutinized this week; any indications of de-escalation could lead to profit booking moves later in the week.
Macro cues from the US, including CPI numbers due today and the GDP print on Friday, are expected to provide fresh direction. Gains in US CPI may show slowing momentum but are likely to remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. If US CPI comes moderately lower with GDP surprising to the downside, gold bias could tilt towards upside resistance at around $5,350–5,370 per ounce in spot for the coming week.
Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes, or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.
