The US labour market is expected to remain resilient in the coming months despite a moderation in hiring activity, as elevated job openings and relatively stable labour turnover suggest employers continue to seek workers even amid a slowing economy.
Job Openings Remain Elevated
According to the US Department of Labor's latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), the number of job openings stood at 7.59 million in May, little changed from April. The national job openings rate remained steady at 4.6 per cent during the same month, reinforcing expectations that the employment market is cooling gradually rather than weakening sharply.
Hiring Activity Eases Modestly
The report showed hiring activity eased modestly during the month. Total hires declined by 45,000 to 5.17 million, while the hires rate held at 3.3 per cent, indicating employers remain selective but continue to add workers.
Sector-Wise Labour Demand Strengthens
Sector-wise, labour demand strengthened across several industries. Job openings increased in manufacturing, construction, trade, transportation and utilities, and leisure and hospitality, reflecting continued demand in goods-producing industries and consumer-facing services. Manufacturing job openings rose to 529,000, while construction vacancies climbed to 298,000, suggesting businesses are preparing for sustained production and infrastructure activity.
Labour Turnover Broadly Stable
At the same time, overall labour turnover remained broadly stable. Total separations edged up by 63,000 to 5.10 million, while the quits rate—a closely watched measure of worker confidence—held steady at 1.9 per cent. Layoffs and discharges increased slightly to 1.71 million, but the layoffs rate remained low at 1.1 per cent, indicating employers continue to retain workers despite softer hiring momentum.
Gradual Rebalancing Supports Soft Landing
The data suggest the US labour market is gradually moving toward better balance after several years of exceptionally tight conditions. While hiring has moderated, stable job openings and restrained layoffs point to continued demand for labour, reducing the risk of a sharp deterioration in employment conditions. The US Department of Labor's data indicates that a measured easing in labour market tightness could support a soft economic landing by helping contain wage pressures without triggering widespread job losses. The resilience in job vacancies, particularly in manufacturing and construction, is also likely to provide support to broader economic activity in the months ahead, even as policymakers continue to monitor inflation and growth trends.
