Reliance Industries Q3 Earnings Preview: Key Investor Focus Areas
Reliance Industries, led by billionaire Mukesh Ambani, is set to announce its third-quarter financial results. Analysts project a significant rise in profits and revenue. The company's performance is drawing intense scrutiny from investors who are eager for concrete updates on major strategic initiatives.
Financial Projections Show Strong Growth
According to consensus estimates from multiple brokerages, Reliance Industries is expected to report a profit of ₹21,317 crore for the quarter ended December 31. This represents a 15% increase compared to the same period last year. The company's topline is projected to grow by 8% year-on-year, reaching ₹2.58 trillion.
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization are forecast to rise by approximately 10% to ₹48,574 crore. These strong numbers come as all three of Reliance's core businesses are generating free cash flow simultaneously for the first time in the company's history.
Investor Priorities: Jio IPO and New Ventures
Market experts indicate that investors have two primary concerns heading into the earnings announcement. First, they want clear timelines for the initial public offering of Jio Platforms. The company previously guided toward a listing in the first half of 2026, and with that deadline approaching, stakeholders are seeking confirmation and specific details.
"The Jio IPO timeline is the top priority for investors," said Sudip Bandyopadhyay, group chairman at Inditrade Capital Ltd. "This represents substantial value unlocking for shareholders."
Second, investors are looking for material progress updates on Reliance's new growth engines. These include the new energy complex in Jamnagar, artificial intelligence initiatives, and the expanding consumer goods business. Most of the company's future cash flows are expected to fund these ventures.
Business Segment Performance Breakdown
Reliance Industries operates through several key divisions. The oil-to-chemicals segment contributes approximately half of the company's total revenue and nearly one-third of its consolidated EBITDA. This business includes refining operations that convert crude oil into downstream chemical products.
The retail segment, encompassing both physical stores and fast-moving consumer goods operations, generates more than a quarter of consolidated revenue. It accounts for about 14% of consolidated EBITDA. The digital services segment, which includes telecommunications through Jio Platforms, brings in less than 15% of revenue but contributes a substantial 40% of EBITDA.
Smaller segments include oil exploration and production, which provides modest revenue contributions, along with various other classified businesses.
New Energy Complex Faces Timeline Questions
Reliance is developing a massive new energy complex near its existing Jamnagar refinery. The project aims to establish capabilities in solar panels, renewable electricity generation, and green hydrogen production. However, firm timelines for these initiatives remain elusive.
Delays have emerged in operationalizing at least one critical component: the battery cell manufacturing facility. Originally scheduled for 2025, this plant is now slated to begin operations in 2026. Reports suggest potential further delays following a failed technology partnership with a Chinese company, though Reliance has denied these claims and reaffirmed its commitment to existing timelines.
Refining Business Navigates Changing Dynamics
The company's refining operations have benefited from favorable market conditions. A global shortage of refining capacity, exacerbated by Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, has supported strong margins. The benchmark Singapore gross refining margin improved to $4.9 per barrel in the third quarter, up from $4 per barrel in the previous quarter.
Reliance had previously imported discounted Russian crude oil, which accounted for more than one-third of its oil imports during the first nine months of the fiscal year. With U.S. sanctions prompting an abrupt halt to these purchases, the company faces potential margin pressure. However, rising fuel cracks globally are helping to offset much of this impact.
Telecommunications Business Shows Strength
Jio Platforms continues to demonstrate robust performance. The telecommunications provider now serves over 500 million subscribers. Brokerages estimate the average revenue per user reached ₹211-214 during the quarter, with projections suggesting this could rise to ₹252-262 by fiscal year 2028.
The business is generating free cash flow ahead of its anticipated IPO, supported by tapering capital expenditure following heavy investments in 5G rollout and steady subscriber growth coupled with tariff increases.
Additional Investor Concerns
Beyond financial performance and project timelines, investors will monitor management commentary regarding an ongoing dispute with the Indian government. The disagreement concerns the KG-D6 offshore oil and gas block, with reports suggesting the government has raised a substantial claim during private arbitration proceedings. Reliance has firmly denied these reports, stating the matters are sub judice and expressing confidence in the judicial system.
Reliance shares have declined more than 8% since the beginning of 2026, underperforming the benchmark Sensex index. The upcoming earnings announcement and subsequent management commentary could provide important catalysts for the stock's performance in coming months.
