Silver Rate Today: Prices Slide 5.5% from Record High
Silver prices faced significant selling pressure last week. The precious white metal dropped sharply, moving about 5.50% below its all-time high of $93.700 per ounce. This decline came as the US Dollar gained strength. Market chatter about a potential US Federal Reserve rate cut also played a role. Improved US unemployment data and easing tensions between the US and Iran contributed to the bearish sentiment.
Why Is Silver Under Pressure?
Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered commodity expert, explained the fundamental reasons. He noted that COMEX silver finished Friday's session at $88.537 per ounce. This represents an intraday loss of roughly 4.15%. The strong US Dollar is a primary factor. Expectations for a Fed rate cut at the upcoming meeting added to the pressure. Better-than-expected US jobless claims data last week further dampened sentiment.
Beyond these fundamentals, technical steps by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) also impacted prices. The CME raised margin requirements for silver futures contracts. This move effectively reduced buying support at higher price levels. Gupta confirmed that the CME increased the margin for January and February 2026 contracts to 45%. He suggested this limit could rise further if silver prices do not stabilize soon.
Key Levels to Watch for a Potential Top-Out
Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at Pace 360, outlined critical thresholds. He stated that if COMEX silver closes below $82 per ounce and fails to reclaim that level within one or two sessions, a top may be confirmed. On the MCX in India, a close below ₹2,70,000 per kilogram could signal a similar peak. Such a move would likely trigger long-awaited profit-booking by institutional investors.
The Gold-Silver Ratio Sends a Signal
Goel also advised investors to monitor the gold-silver ratio. This ratio has dipped below 52 in international markets. A lower ratio suggests buying gold is currently more favorable than silver. The ratio's pivot point is around 80. Its recent drop to near 50 is surprising. Goel believes most metal rallies have stalled. He expects gold and silver to top out soon, with gold likely peaking first due to its recent tight trading range. However, he thinks silver still has some momentum left. The big question is whether it can challenge the $100 per ounce level.
"I expect the silver price rally may top out next month," Goel said. "The curiosity is whether rebounds are a dead cat bounce or have real potential to set a new record near or above $100."
Historical Context: Could a Sharp Crash Follow?
Anuj Gupta pointed to silver's volatile history. The metal often crashes heavily after strong bull runs. He cited the 1980 example involving the Hunt Brothers. Their massive accumulation reportedly forced exchanges to raise margins, triggering a liquidity squeeze. Silver prices plummeted from around $49.50 to $11 per ounce. A similar event occurred in 2011, with prices falling 75% after peaking near $48.
Amit Goel echoed this cautious outlook. He predicted a sharp fall once silver tops out. By the end of October 2026, he anticipates at least a 30% correction from the peak.
Technical Outlook and Key Support Levels
Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money, provided a technical perspective. He noted COMEX silver saw mild profit-booking over two sessions. A 'hanging man' candle pattern formed near higher levels, indicating temporary exhaustion. Prices are now consolidating between $87 and $88 after correcting from above $93. The broader structure remains bullish as long as silver holds above the $82–$83 support zone. A breakout above $92 could renew momentum toward $95–$100.
For MCX silver, Ponmudi highlighted the ₹2,83,000 to ₹2,80,000 zone as strong support. A sustained move above ₹2,95,000 could push prices toward ₹3,05,000 to ₹3,20,000. Persistent supply gaps and rising industrial demand support an aggressive dip-buying strategy.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Silver prices are currently down 5.50% from their record high.
- The CME's increased margin requirements signal potential for higher volatility.
- Historical trends show silver often experiences significant declines after rapid rallies, urging investor caution.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
