The Indian rupee snapped its previous session's rally and fell 34 paise to close at 95.19 against the US dollar on Monday, weighed down by renewed geopolitical tensions involving the US and Iran, a sharp rise in crude oil prices and a stronger greenback, as per PTI report.
Rupee Performance
The domestic currency opened at 94.93 in the interbank foreign exchange market and touched an intraday high of 94.73 and a low of 95.03 before settling at 95.19 against the dollar. On Friday, the rupee had surged 73 paise to close at 94.85 against the US currency amid suspected intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
Market Sentiment
Forex traders said risk sentiment weakened globally due to renewed concerns over the West Asia situation, strength in the US dollar and tensions involving Israel and Lebanon. Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Mirae Asset ShareKhan, stated: 'We expect the rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on renewed geopolitical tensions and an overnight surge in crude oil prices. A strong dollar and rising US treasury yields may also weigh on the rupee.' Choudhary added that ongoing diplomatic efforts could limit further losses, predicting the USDINR spot price to trade in a range of 94.60 to 95.30.
Key Events Ahead
Market participants are now closely watching the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for June 3-5. The six-member committee, headed by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, will announce its policy decision on June 5.
Global Cues
Meanwhile, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was trading 0.10 per cent higher at 99.04. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, climbed 3.47 per cent to USD 94.28 per barrel in futures trade, adding pressure on emerging-market currencies including the rupee.
Domestic Equity and FII Activity
On the domestic equity front, the BSE Sensex fell 508.40 points to close at 74,267.34, while the NSE Nifty declined 165.15 points to settle at 23,382.60. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net sellers, offloading equities worth Rs 3,911.68 crore on Monday, according to exchange data.
Economic Indicators
Among key domestic indicators released during the day, gross GST collections rose 3.2 per cent to more than Rs 1.94 lakh crore in May, supported by higher supplies of goods and services and stronger import-related collections. Official data also showed that India's industrial production grew 4.9 per cent in April, lower than the 5.7 per cent expansion recorded a year earlier, though higher than the 3.2 per cent growth seen in March. Separately, Controller General of Accounts (CGA) data showed that the Centre met its fiscal deficit target of 4.4 per cent of GDP for 2025-26, with revenue collections reaching Rs 33.42 lakh crore, or 98.8 per cent of the revised Budget Estimates.
Geopolitical Developments
On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump said the United States and Iran were close to a 'very good deal', but warned that if Washington did not get what it wanted, it would 'end it in a different way'. Trump said the Iranians are 'good negotiators' but argued that the United States now holds 'all the cards' because Iran has been 'militarily defeated'.
