Gold Expected to Rise Further, Silver May Pause After Rally
Gold prices are likely to extend their upward movement in the coming week. Analysts point to safe-haven buying and expectations of policy easing by the US Federal Reserve as key drivers. Meanwhile, silver may enter a phase of consolidation following its recent sharp rally.
Global Economic Data in Focus
Market participants will closely watch a series of global macroeconomic indicators. These include inflation data from major economies, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures index, GDP numbers, PMI readings, and weekly jobless claims. These data points are expected to provide fresh signals about the future direction of US monetary policy.
Investors will also monitor economic data from China, which holds particular importance for industrial metals. According to Pranav Mer, vice president of EBG – commodity & currency research at JM Financial Services Ltd, other developments to watch include US President Donald Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum and the Supreme Court judgement on trade.
Domestic Market Performance
On the domestic front, gold futures on the Multi-Commodity Exchange gained Rs 3,698 over the past week. This represents a 2.7 percent increase. Prices touched a record high of Rs 1,43,590 per 10 grams on Wednesday before easing slightly.
Mer noted that gold prices received partial support from a weaker rupee against the US dollar. However, some gains were trimmed on Friday due to profit-booking and long liquidation. He explained that the risk premium eased following the US President's softer tone on Iran, better-than-expected jobs data, and a firm dollar.
International Market Trends
In overseas markets, gold futures on Comex rose by $94.5 last week. This translates to a 2.09 percent increase. Prices closed at $4,595.4 per ounce on Friday after hitting a record of $4,650.50 earlier in the week.
Prathamesh Mallya, DVP-Research for Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, said gold gained more than 2 percent during the week. He attributed this to geopolitical risks linked to Iran, which boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Mallya highlighted that expectations of US rate cuts, a weaker dollar, lower treasury yields, and continued central bank buying are supporting prices.
Mallya expects gold to move towards Rs 1,46,000 per 10 grams on the MCX. In global markets, he anticipates prices around $4,750 per ounce in the coming week.
Silver's Exceptional Rally
Silver witnessed an exceptional rally recently. On the MCX, prices jumped nearly 14 percent over the week. This represents an increase of Rs 35,037, with prices hitting a record high of Rs 2,92,960 per kilogram.
In global markets, silver rose $9.2 to settle at $88.53 per ounce. This marks an 11.6 percent increase after touching a lifetime high of $93.75.
Mer noted that silver's sharp rise continued despite some profit-taking and consolidation towards the end of the week. This followed reports that the Trump administration would not impose tariffs on critical miners for now. However, he cautioned that the rally could face a correction as prices approach the $100 per ounce level.
Broader Market Outlook
Vijay Kuppa, CEO of InCred Money, said both gold and silver remain structurally positive. He acknowledged that near-term volatility cannot be ruled out. Kuppa pointed out that central bank gold purchases, strong ETF inflows, geopolitical tensions, and macroeconomic uncertainty continue to support precious metals as portfolio hedges.
Kuppa added that silver's dual role as a precious and industrial metal underpins its long-term outlook. Demand from technology, renewable energy, and electrification sectors provides additional support. He emphasized that short-term corrections after a strong rally are a normal part of the price discovery process. Such corrections do not necessarily alter the broader trend.
