In a significant shift in stance, India may have deployed 12 nuclear warheads on delivery vehicles, including possibly on a nuclear submarine, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The report also indicates that India's total nuclear warhead inventory has increased to 190 as of January 2026, up from 180 previously.
Change in Nuclear Posture
The reputed global peace think tank suggests that India may have moved towards a ready-to-strike mode by mating warheads with delivery systems. Previously, India maintained a policy of keeping warheads and delivery vehicles separate during peacetime. A deployed nuclear warhead is one that is actively mounted on missiles or loaded onto bombers, ready for immediate use.
The report states: "It has long been assumed that India stores its nuclear warheads separate from its deployed launchers during peacetime. However, the country's recent moves towards placing missiles in canisters and conducting sea-based deterrence patrols suggest that India could be shifting in the direction of mating some of its warheads with their launchers in peacetime."
Nuclear Triad and Warhead Distribution
These weapons are assigned to a maturing nuclear triad comprising aircraft, land-based missiles, and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). SIPRI estimates that India may have started deploying a small number of warheads on a single SSBN conducting occasional deterrence patrols. The Indian Navy currently operates three SSBNs: INS Arihant, INS Arighaat, and INS Aridhaman, with a fourth, INS Arisudan, expected to enter service by 2027.
According to the report, India's nuclear launchers include:
- Aircraft: 16 Jaguar IS launchers (16 warheads) and 32 Mirage 2000H launchers (32 warheads)
- Land-based missiles: 24 Prithvi II (24 warheads), 16 Agni-I (16), 16 Agni-II (16), 16 Agni-III (16), 8 Agni-IV (8), and 8 Agni-V (24 warheads due to MIRV capability)
- Sea-based: 16 SLBM launchers, mostly K15 (B-05) missiles carrying 12 warheads
Additionally, two new land-based missiles are under development: the medium-range Agni-P and the intercontinental Agni-VI.
No Change in No-First-Use Policy
Despite the reported deployment, India's "no first use" policy regarding nuclear attack remains unchanged. The report notes that both India and Pakistan continued to develop new nuclear delivery systems in 2025, with both pursuing multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) capabilities. India recently fielded the Agni-V intermediate-range missile with MIRV capability, tested in March 2024.
Global Nuclear Arsenal
As of January 2026, nine states—the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—possessed a total of 12,187 nuclear weapons, with 9,745 in military stockpiles. The overall number of nuclear warheads continues to decline, primarily due to the US and Russia dismantling retired warheads.
Pakistan's nuclear stockpile remains unchanged at approximately 170 warheads, the report added.
